Iceland votes on resuming EU accession talks – tight race

Background: Negotiations frozen since 2013

Iceland had already applied for EU membership in 2009 and conducted accession negotiations with Brussels between 2010 and 2013. At the time, however, the Icelandic government changed, the talks were put on ice and later officially withdrawn. Since then, the question of a new attempt has been a recurring topic in Icelandic politics.

Supporters see economic advantages in EU accession, more stable access to the European single market, and a stronger security policy connection to Western partners. Critics, on the other hand, warn of a loss of national sovereignty, for example in fisheries policy, and an impairment of Iceland's traditional independence.

Arguments of supporters and critics

Observers interpret the narrow interim result as a sign of a deeply divided mood in Icelandic society. Voter turnout was already described as high on election day; many voters see the vote as a decision on Iceland's future role between North America and Europe.

The Icelandic government had clearly spoken out in favor of resuming the talks in the run-up. Parliamentarians from both camps had campaigned intensively for their position in the weeks before the referendum, with economic arguments, security issues and identity debates at the center.

The vote is also being followed closely internationally. Brussels had recently shown itself fundamentally open to resuming the talks, without taking an official position. In EU circles, it is pointed out that a positive vote could clear the way for new negotiation chapters.

Possible consequences for Reykjavik and Brussels

Should the final outcome confirm the trend of the partial results, the Icelandic population would have decided against the opening of new accession talks. In the event of a narrow Yes, however, the way would be clear for a corresponding initiative by the government vis-à-vis the European Union.

The Icelandic election commission intends to complete the count in the coming hours. An official final result is still expected on the same day.

With a view to geography, the vote is also being noted attentively in other North Atlantic states and in Great Britain. Observers see it as a further indicator of the relationship of smaller European states to the European Union.

A direct impact on other accession candidates such as Ukraine or the Western Balkan states is not to be expected according to observers. However, the Icelandic vote could reinvigorate the political debate about the EU's capacity for enlargement.

For the coming days, several parties in Reykjavik announced that they would analyze the result closely and determine the next steps in government. Regardless of the outcome, the question of Iceland's European integration will remain a central topic of domestic political debate.