IISS Report: Russian Drones Apparently Spied in Around a Dozen NATO States

The background to the campaign is likely to include Russian espionage activity, which, since the start of the war in Ukraine and the expulsion of many Russian diplomats, has become more reliant on information gathered by drones. The authors see this as an adaptation of intelligence methods to changed framework conditions.

The IISS analysts describe drones over airports, military bases, and even nuclear sharing facilities. They assess the incidents as an indication that Russia is specifically probing weak points in European defense. The sightings have led to short-term airspace closures and the deployment of interception systems in several countries.

Weaknesses in European Air Defense

According to the report, the campaign revealed significant weaknesses in European air defense, which is still geared toward conventional threats. The authors call for faster integration of sensors, AI-supported analysis, and airborne interceptor drones. Cooperation among national air surveillance efforts also urgently needs to be improved.

The report also points to a clustering of incidents near the coast, which supports the authors' assumption that launches were carried out from ships. Since the shadow fleet consists mostly of unregistered or reflagged tankers, attributing individual incidents to specific actors is difficult.

Restrained Response from Governments

The IISS study contains no direct evidence that Moscow ordered the incidents. It draws on open sources, satellite imagery, flight data, and reports from local authorities. The authors acknowledge that individual sightings could also have been caused by civilian drones or hobbyist devices, but emphasize the systematic nature of the overall campaign.

Western governments have so far reacted cautiously. Individual NATO members such as Germany and Belgium have in the past publicly disclosed specific incidents without formally accusing Russia. The restraint is justified by ongoing investigations and diplomatic considerations.

Security experts view the publication as a wake-up call. The combination of maritime platforms, low-cost drones, and targeted selection of sensitive targets could permanently alter the sense of security in Europe.

The full IISS report is to be made available to governments and parliaments in several European capitals in the coming weeks to support political deliberations on modernizing air defense.