Indirect Talks Between USA and Iran Over Ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz in Doha

Mediation Through Qatar and Pakistan

According to Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bakaei, the Iranian delegation in Doha is being led by Vice Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi. Gharibabadi thereby rejected an earlier announcement by US President Donald Trump that direct talks were planned in Qatar. Although an Iranian delegation is also present in Doha, according to the available information the Iranians are only speaking with the Qatari intermediaries.

According to Gharibabadi, there are "no plans for negotiations with the American side at any level" in the coming days. A direct exchange between the two delegations is not planned according to current information. An insider and an Iranian government representative confirmed that the consultations with the Qatari and Pakistani mediators are taking place separately.

Trump's Positive Assessment of the Talks

According to information from an insider and an Iranian government representative, the talks continued from Tuesday evening into Wednesday. US President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Wednesday before journalists. "The denuclearization of Iran is coming along well," Trump said, adding: "There were very good meetings, and we'll see."

On Tuesday the situation escalated when a foreign container ship ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz according to Iranian accounts. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard repeated its warning that ships may only use the corridor south of the Iranian island of Larak. According to the leadership in Tehran, this is the only approved entry and exit for a passage through the strait.

Over the weekend, the USA and Iran had attacked each other militarily and accused the other side of violating the prevailing ceasefire. According to the available information, the trigger was an Iranian attack on a ship in Omani territorial waters, which set off the renewed exchange of blows in the strait.

Background: The Framework Agreement and the 60-Day Deadline

The negotiations must be seen against the backdrop of an agreement that provides for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day deadline for negotiations on a lasting peace agreement. The agreement is intended to end the war that began in February with US-Israeli attacks on Iran. The basis for the talks is a 14-point agreement signed the previous month.

According to an Iranian government representative, the focus of the negotiations is primarily the administration of the Strait of Hormuz and the release of frozen assets worth six billion dollars (5.27 billion euros). These are to be released according to the agreed framework agreement, but a transfer of the funds has not yet taken place.

Iran insists on permanently controlling the maritime hub, while the USA and the Gulf Arabs vehemently reject this. Tehran apparently understands this administration to mean a system under which ships must pay a fee for passage through the strait. A toll is not permissible in the strait under the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Dispute Over Control of the Strait

Against this backdrop, Iranian envoys negotiated in Muscat on Monday with the Sultanate of Oman on a joint "administration" of the Strait of Hormuz. Oman, under the leadership of Sultan Haitham bin Tarik, had in the past ruled out establishing a toll system in the waterway together with Iran. Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed Al Thani had also visited Oman the previous week to consult with the Sultan about the strait.

Oman's Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi had described the Iranian attacks on the Gulf as "inevitable" in the "Economist" at the start of the war. Oman shares a border with the civil-war country Yemen. If the Iran-aligned Houthis were ever to control the entire territory of Yemen, Muscat would depend on coordination with Tehran to keep the Yemeni tribal warriors in check.

The former United Arab Emirates ambassador, Najla al-Kassimi, said the UAE had given up almost all hope that an agreement with Iran could be reached. Ryan Bohl of the geopolitical consulting firm Rane said that Omani foreign policy in the 20th century had always rested on the principle that Iran is a geopolitical force of nature that one should engage rather than confront.

Oman's Difficult Mediator Role

Bohl also stressed that Oman would try to draw out the talks in order to normalize shipping again. A toll system as envisioned by Iran would also run counter to Omani interests. Yasmine Farouk, project director for the Gulf states at the International Crisis Group, added that Oman had tried in recent weeks together with the International Maritime Organization of the UN to find a compromise.

However, sanctions or other coercive measures by the US government against Oman cannot be ruled out, Farouk said. At the end of May, Donald Trump had announced that he would "blow Oman to smithereens" if the Sultanate did not "behave well." This threat was issued by the American president against the backdrop of the closer coordination between Muscat and Tehran.

According to analyst Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has partially resumed, but the reopening is uneven, unpredictable, and not fully transparent. The US side is primarily demanding free passage through the strategically important strait, through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied gas trade was handled before the war.

Economic Consequences and International Reactions

The French shipping company CMA CGM expects, according to its chief Rodolphe Saade, a normalization of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz only in several months. Several ships have been stranded in the Gulf since the start of the war. According to the company, around 60 percent of ships currently travel through the Suez Canal, while 40 percent take the longer route around Africa.

Within Iran itself, the leadership faces significant public discontent amid the strained economic situation. The resumption of maritime trade and the release of frozen funds are considered crucial to stabilizing the situation. During negotiations in Switzerland in mid-June, the USA and Iran agreed on a roadmap for a peace agreement in the region, on which the current talks are building.

US Defense Secretary Boris Pistorius stated meanwhile that he did not currently expect the deployment of German mine-hunting boats in the region and referred to recent statements from Iran. Iran has stressed that it wants to carry out mine clearance itself. Trump is under domestic pressure to contain the economic consequences of the conflict before the congressional elections in November.

Critics from within his own ranks accuse Trump that the preliminary agreement does not secure US objectives. The talks in Doha are now intended to help find a lasting solution – whereby the indirect nature of the talks and the unresolved question of fees in the strait remain the biggest obstacles.