Trump Claims Framework Deal With Iran as Oil Prices Fall and Markets Rally

Trump said he would not be present at any signing himself because he will be in Washington on Sunday for his 80th birthday. Vice President JD Vance could travel to Europe in his place, Trump said, without giving a destination. After his birthday, Trump plans to fly to France for the G7 summit of leading democratic economic powers, which is being held in the French spa town of Évian on Lake Geneva from June 15 to June 17.

What Trump Says the Framework Includes

The president said Iran's head of state, Mojtaba Khamenei, had already approved the framework. 'So wie ich es verstehe, ist die Antwort ja,' Trump said. According to Trump's account, the framework includes an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, both of which he has demanded in public posts on Truth Social.

On his social media platform, Trump had earlier in the week threatened that the US military would strike Iran 'sehr hart' in the coming night and would 'take over' the strategically vital island of Kharg, 'die für Irans Ölindustrie wichtige Insel Kharg.' Roughly 90 percent of Iran's oil exports flow through the terminal on Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf. Trump cancelled the planned attacks late on Thursday, citing progress in discussions with the 'highest level of Iranian leadership.'

Iran's Cautious Response

If concluded, the framework would represent the most significant diplomatic breakthrough to end a conflict that has lasted three months, killed thousands of people and driven global energy prices sharply higher. The United States and Israel began the war with attacks on Iran in late February. A ceasefire has nominally been in effect since April, but both sides have continued to exchange fire on multiple occasions, most recently overnight into Thursday.

Iran's reaction was cautious. High-ranking Iranian politicians initially made no public comment on Trump's announcement, and Tehran played down the suggestion that an agreement could be reached soon. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said the renewed US attacks had rendered the existing ceasefire 'praktisch bedeutungslos,' but stopped short of formally terminating it and pointed to Iran's right to self-defence.

Iran's Fars news agency, which is close to the Revolutionary Guards, reported, citing a source connected to the negotiating team, that 'Es wurde kein Text für eine Vereinbarung gebilligt.' Fars said a framework deal had been largely finalized about two weeks earlier but that talks were put on hold because of military tensions, including Israeli attacks on Beirut. Progress resumed on Wednesday, Fars reported, after mediation by the Gulf emirate of Qatar.

Israel's Red Lines and Assurances From Washington

Diplomatic sources told Reuters that both sides had exchanged drafts of a declaration of intent, which Trump described as a 'Absichtserklärung' — a Memorandum of Understanding. Iranian and Western insiders said on Thursday that efforts to reach a preliminary deal to stop hostilities had been intensified, even as the air strikes continued. 'die Gespräche über ein vorläufiges Friedensabkommen' had 'sogar vorankommen,' according to insiders cited in the reports.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Trump had told Netanyahu in an evening phone call about an 'sich abzeichnende Absichtserklärung' between the United States and Iran that Israel is not party to. The office said Washington had assured Israel that its security interests would be considered in any final agreement, and that a deal would include the removal of Iran's enriched uranium and the dismantling of its uranium enrichment facilities. Trump allegedly also assured Netanyahu that a final agreement would restrict Iran's missile production and end its support for proxies in the region, including Hamas and Hezbollah.

Key points of dispute remain. Iran is demanding an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon, the lifting of US sanctions and recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint critical for global trade in oil, gas and fertilizer. Tehran also wants the release of frozen oil revenues, a sum that Iranian sources put at 6 to 12 billion US dollars; the US government has said it would release funds only gradually and exclusively for humanitarian goods. Media reports have indicated that the question of Iran's highly enriched uranium could be negotiated in depth over a 60-day period within a framework deal.

Sticking Points: Sanctions, Uranium and the Strait of Hormuz

CNN has counted exactly 39 instances since mid-March in which Trump has claimed a deal with Iran was near. Trump has repeatedly insisted that the current understanding is different. The deal would mean that Iran would 'niemals eine Atomwaffe' possess, Trump said, and he cited his approach to Venezuela as a model, telling reporters it had worked 'brillant' for both countries.

Markets reacted immediately. The oil price fell noticeably following Trump's announcement, while stock prices rose sharply at the same time. Investors pointed to the prospect of reopened oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the US naval blockade, which had been imposed in response to Iran's de facto blockade of the waterway.

Markets React: Oil Down, Stocks Up

On Truth Social, Trump has also written that the United States would gain 'totalen Kontrolle über ihre Öl- und Gasmärkte' and would in the not-too-distant future 'take over' Kharg and other parts of Iran's oil infrastructure. He has not, however, retracted those threats as part of the framework announcement, and Iran's own public posture remains guarded.

Military Strikes Continue Even as Talks Advance

Even as the diplomatic track continued, the military exchanges went on. The US military said it struck military surveillance and communications facilities as well as air defence installations in Iran during the night leading into Thursday. Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded with counterattacks, among other things, on US bases in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait. The US military also said it attacked a tanker in the Gulf of Oman that allegedly attempted to transport Iranian oil; India's Foreign Ministry said three Indian crew members were killed in the incident and 21 others were rescued. In Tehran Province, at least three people were injured in attacks, according to Iranian media. In Lebanon, Israeli strikes killed six people and wounded ten others near a hospital.

Trump threatened further strikes immediately after the overnight operation ended, but by Thursday evening he had cancelled the new round of attacks he had announced for the evening, blaming the cancellation on progress in discussions with Iran. Trump said he planned to speak with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and that time and place of the signing of the agreement would be 'in Kürze bekanntgegeben.'

Diplomatic activity now centres on whether Trump's framework announcement will be matched by an Iranian counterpart ready to sign. Tehran has so far stuck to restrained, low-key messaging, while Israeli officials say they have received assurances that their red lines will be respected. The coming days — and the European venue Trump suggested — are likely to determine whether the third month of war ends in a signed document or in another round of postponed claims.