Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, US strikes resume

New Supreme Leader vows revenge

The escalation comes against the backdrop of an ongoing war that began with opening strikes on Feb. 28, which killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued his first statement since his father's funeral, vowing that revenge for his father's killing "is the will of our nation and must certainly be carried out." During the funeral, mourners held posters and banners calling for Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to be killed.

Diplomacy continues through Oman

Diplomatic channels remain narrow but active. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met his Omani counterpart on Saturday to discuss "appropriate mechanisms for ensuring the safe passage of ships," and Oman said both countries agreed to keep talking at the technical and political levels. Araghchi wrote on social media: "Reality check: There can only be mutual compliance." Iran's top diplomat also accused the U.S. of violating an interim deal by ending waivers that had allowed Iran to sell crude oil on the open market in U.S. dollars.

Senior U.S. officials in Washington, speaking on condition of anonymity, said negotiations to cement the previous month's war-ending deal cannot progress without the Strait of Hormuz being secure, and that they wanted Iran to make public statements to that effect. Trump declared the ceasefire over but said the U.S. would continue negotiations. He also said any U.S. retaliation for his assassination would have to be ordered by Vice President JD Vance, who would become commander-in-chief if Trump were killed.

Humanitarian toll and regional retaliation

The humanitarian toll inside Iran is mounting. Iranian Health Ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpour said strikes in Iran over two days and prior to the warning-shot incident killed at least 17 people and wounded 115 others. Iran state media reported explosions in Bandar Abbas and Sirik, two towns along the shores of the strait.

On Thursday, Iran retaliated for U.S. strikes by targeting Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar. U.S. officials, speaking Friday on condition of anonymity, said the resumption of strikes resulted from what they described as a rogue faction of Iranian hard-liners trying to sabotage the ceasefire.

Economic stakes for global shipping

The economic stakes are significant. About a fifth of all traded oil and natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war began. Oil prices have sharply dropped from wartime highs of $120 a barrel. The U.S. is urging mariners to transit the strait on a southern route through Oman's territorial waters.

The IRGC Navy statement did not provide details about the struck vessel beyond saying it had "jeopardised maritime security by switching off its systems." The Iranian statement said several ships attempted to move through the waterway on an unauthorized route and disregarded warnings to correct their course.