Israel and Lebanon reach agreement in Washington on implementing a ceasefire

At the heart of the agreement is the establishment of so-called pilot zones in Lebanon, where only regular Lebanese armed forces are to exercise control. The joint statement speaks of "pilot zones under the exclusive control of the Lebanese army." This is intended to push Hezbollah back from the areas south of the Litani River near the Israeli border. Details of the implementation remained unclear initially.

The ceasefire is explicitly conditioned: according to the parties involved, it "depends on a complete cessation of Hezbollah's attacks on Israel." Israel also stated that it will only adhere to the ceasefire if Hezbollah does the same. The joint statement simultaneously rejected attempts to hold Lebanon's future "hostage by state or non-state actors," apparently alluding to Iran and its support for Hezbollah.

Direct Talks Between Israel and Lebanon

The talks between Israeli and Lebanese government representatives were the first at a political level since 1983. The two countries do not maintain diplomatic relations and have never concluded a peace treaty. Hezbollah was not involved in the negotiations; they "proceed without their participation" and the militia "rejects the ceasefire as well as the talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington."

Previous Ceasefires and Their Breaches

A ceasefire has been in effect in Lebanon since April 17, which was extended in mid-May. Even this first ceasefire and its later extensions were fragile. Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, supported by Tehran, have continued to attack each other daily despite it. Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel, and Israel, in turn, repeatedly carried out airstrikes on numerous targets in Lebanon and sent ground troops across the border. The ceasefire had been largely ineffective in practice so far.

Background: Iran War and Escalation

The background to the renewed escalation is the war between Israel and the USA against Iran, which began at the end of February. Lebanon was drawn into the Iran war in early March. In response to the killing of the supreme Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah has been firing rockets at Israel ever since. The ongoing fighting in Lebanon has also recently strained US-Iranian talks on ending the Iran war; Tehran is also demanding an end to the Lebanon conflict in negotiations for a framework agreement to end the Iran war.

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was already concluded in November 2024, but it was extremely fragile. Israel continued to attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and accused the militia of rearming in violation of the agreement. Furthermore, Israel and Hezbollah were already in open conflict as a result of the Gaza war. Previous ceasefires had been repeatedly broken and extended only for limited periods.

Role of the Lebanese Government and Hezbollah

The Lebanese government is not a party to the conflict and has only limited influence over the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia. It was not initially communicated whether the new commitment to the ceasefire represents a temporary extension. Further talks are scheduled to continue later this month in just under three weeks. The statement also noted that the future of relations between Israel and Lebanon must be decided by the two governments themselves.

The direct contacts in Washington mark an extraordinary step between two states that officially have no relations. The US mediation points to the regional dimension in which the Lebanon conflict is linked to the broader Iran war. The joint statement said that Israel and Lebanon had agreed on the "implementation of a ceasefire." The pilot zones are to be gradually expanded accordingly.

At the same time, skepticism is growing as to whether the agreement will hold. Hezbollah has rejected the ceasefire, continued its rocket attacks on Israel, and asserted its political role in Lebanon. Israel, for its part, has repeatedly carried out airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and sent ground troops across the border. The question of how the security zones are to be concretely established remained open.

Assessment and Outlook

Observers see the agreement as a signal of willingness to negotiate from both governments, but emphasize that the ceasefire has been practically ineffective in the past. The coming weeks – including the announced further talks – are considered crucial as to whether the implementation of the ceasefire agreed this time will actually take hold or whether the violence will continue.

The US State Department announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed on a path to implement the ceasefire. Associated with this is the expectation that Hezbollah will completely cease its attacks on Israel. Should this not happen, it remains open whether Israel will maintain its commitments under the agreement.

Overall, the situation remains fragile. The Washington agreement is a diplomatic step forward, but it is subject to the behavior of a militia that neither participated in the talks nor signaled its approval. The upcoming talks later this month will show whether the pilot zones can be realized and the ceasefire can actually be implemented.