Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon – Tehran threatens harsh response

Since the beginning of March, around 3,800 people have been killed and 11,800 others injured in Lebanon in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, according to official figures. The numbers come from Lebanese government sources and are considered plausible but not fully verifiable by international aid organizations. Observers assess that the actual total number of victims could be higher, as many injured people are not being treated in official hospitals.

Casualty figures and humanitarian situation

The Iranian army meanwhile sharpened its tone. The central command of the Iranian armed forces declared on television that should the Israeli army „ihre Aggression im Süden des Libanon nicht einstellt, muss sie mit einer harten Reaktion der mächtigen Streitkräfte der Islamischen Republik Iran rechnen“. Iran's leadership also accused Israel of having already violated the prevailing ceasefire in Lebanon „84-mal“. A direct military involvement of Iran in the conflict has so far not been proven.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the Iranian criticism with a message on the platform X. It read: „Israel benötigt keine iranische Erlaubnis, sich zu verteidigen.“ He had previously made clear that his own troops would remain in Lebanon „so lange wie nötig“ to secure Israel's northern border. Israel refers to the territories seized in Lebanon, in the Gaza Strip, and in Syria as „Pufferzonen“ between its own territory and hostile areas.

Iran's threats to Israel

Parallel to the attacks, indirect negotiations between Israel and the USA were underway according to media reports. A high-ranking insider said Israel was conducting „hartnäckige Verhandlungen“ with the government in Washington. US President Donald Trump expressed concern on the sidelines of the G-7 summit: „Und das wirft ein schlechtes Licht auf das große Abkommen, nämlich das Abkommen mit dem Iran,“ he said with reference to the ongoing nuclear talks.

Concern grew in Iran's leadership after the attacks about the ongoing negotiations with Washington. An adviser to the Iranian president stated that an atomic bomb was the actual goal that had to be prevented: „Letzteres sei schließlich eine ‚Mauer gegen die Atombombe', der Iran wolle einen Deal machen.“ The simultaneity of combat operations and diplomacy is considered highly risky by observers.

The United Nations expressed alarm. The spokesperson for UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in New York: „Trotz einer Verringerung der Intensität der Feindseligkeiten im Einsatzgebiet beobachten unsere Unifil-Friedenstruppen im Südlibanon weiterhin umfangreiche militärische Aktivitäten der israelischen Streitkräfte.“ This included troop movements with a high density of tanks, large-scale engineering and demolition work, and sustained logistical traffic. UNIFIL called on all sides to comply with international law.

UNIFIL observes troop movements

The background to the current outbreak of violence is a framework agreement reached after months of indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon under US mediation. Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem described the agreement on Wednesday evening as a „großen Sieg“ for Tehran and declared with reference to Israel that his militia had „das Recht, sich zu verteidigen“. The statement read, according to Al-Arabiya: „Von nun an werden sie keine feindseligen Aktionen mehr unternehmen und von der Androhung von Gewalt absehen“ – referring to Hezbollah and the Israeli army.

The first point of a 14-point declaration provides for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Both sides were called upon to guarantee „die territoriale Integrität und Souveränität des Libanon“. Israel had expanded its offensive in southern Lebanon after the Hezbollah militia fired rockets at Israeli territory on March 2. Since then, the intensity of the fighting has fluctuated between phases of relative calm and fierce escalations.

According to the Israeli broadcaster N12, the Israeli army has received new guidelines for the offensive against Hezbollah. The exact extent of the restrictions is unclear. Observers interpret the report as an indication that the military leadership is working toward a political solution without fully halting operations. Netanyahu himself made clear: „Wenn es mir nicht gefällt, werden wir wieder schießen,“ he wrote on X (Report by Maria Sterkl from Haifa, June 17, 2026).

Framework agreement and ceasefire

The economic consequences for Lebanon are severe according to international donors. A Lebanese government representative formulated his country's position with regard to international aid offers as follows: „Der Libanon braucht keine Hilfe, sondern Investitionen,“ he said according to his office. The destruction of infrastructure, the displacement of entire villages, and the collapse of the healthcare system have pushed reconstruction needs to several billion dollars according to UN estimates.

Iran's leadership announced that it could put its threat of retaliation into action should Israel not stop its attacks. At the same time, Tehran is insisting on the success of the diplomatic nuclear talks. Observers in the region see in the dual strategy of threat and willingness to negotiate an attempt to maintain maximum pressure on Washington and Jerusalem without risking military escalation in the Gulf.

International diplomats warn that the conflict could develop into a regional conflagration. Should Iran actually intervene militarily, a direct Israeli-Iranian exchange of blows would be the most likely consequence. The USA has so far not sent troop reinforcements to the region but is keeping its bases in the eastern Mediterranean on heightened alert. France and Germany called on both sides to immediately return to the negotiating table.

Diplomacy between Washington and Tehran

The humanitarian situation in southern Lebanon is deteriorating daily. Aid organizations report overcrowded hospitals, a lack of fuel for generators, and a shortage of drinking water. Several dozen villages along the border with Israel are considered largely depopulated. The Lebanese government has asked the international community for emergency aid amounting to several hundred million dollars.

Observers in Beirut and Tel Aviv see in the latest attacks an attempt by both sides to create facts on the ground ahead of possible new rounds of negotiations. While Israel wants to further weaken Hezbollah through targeted airstrikes, Hezbollah is trying to maintain pressure on the Israeli government through demonstration attacks and rocket fire. The coming days are considered decisive for whether the ceasefire will hold or whether a new escalation spiral will begin.

Risk of a regional escalation

The Lebanese state agency NNA published a preliminary casualty toll from the latest attacks on Wednesday evening: according to this, four people were killed in the attacks on June 17. The number of injured was given as more than a dozen. Rescue forces searched the rubble of destroyed buildings for further survivors.