Israel announces new round of talks with Lebanon for mid-July in Rome

Background: The "security zone" in southern Lebanon

The area controlled by Israel in southern Lebanon covers approximately 620 square kilometers according to geographic calculations by Lebanese media. The zone extends along the border and encompasses several localities that were densely populated before the conflict. Independent observers have not yet confirmed the exact extent; the figures are based on calculations by Lebanese media.

Iran and Hezbollah demand that the Israeli army fully withdraw from the country. From Iran's perspective, a partial withdrawal such as that envisioned by Katz is insufficient. The pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia considers itself a resistance movement against the Israeli presence and rejects disarmament under current conditions.

Katz also stated that Hezbollah had attacked Israel twice — following the Islamist Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and after the start of the Iran war on October 28, 2023. With this timeline, Israel directly links Hezbollah to the onset of the large-scale conflict in the Middle East and uses this to justify its ongoing military presence in the neighboring country.

Outbreak of war and escalation

Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government describe the "security zone" unilaterally imposed by Israel as an occupation in violation of international law. Beirut points to UN resolutions calling for a withdrawal to the internationally recognized border line — the so-called Blue Line. International legal experts are divided in their assessment of Israel's position.

The Lebanese government currently conditions its participation in a further round of talks with Israel on a troop withdrawal from two designated so-called pilot zones. Only after such an initial step would Beirut be ready to negotiate in Rome without preconditions, according to Lebanese government sources. The pilot zones are areas in which the army is to gradually withdraw in order to build trust for the talks.

Israeli media report that such a step is considered unlikely ahead of parliamentary elections expected by mid-October. Domestically, a withdrawal from southern Lebanon without prior disarmament of Hezbollah would be politically difficult for the government to push through. The debate over the right timing for a withdrawal has shaped the election campaign for months.

Domestic political situation in Israel

The talks in Rome are, according to current planning, to be mediated or at least accompanied by the United States. Washington has already acted as a mediator between Israel and Lebanon in earlier rounds and is considered the most important international actor in the conflict. The United States has repeatedly emphasized that a diplomatic solution is in the interest of all parties involved.

It remains open what concrete security guarantees Israel will demand in return for a withdrawal. Possible options include international observers along the border, a monitored disarmament of Hezbollah, and an agreement on the stationing of Lebanese army units in the border area. Such models had already been discussed in earlier rounds of negotiations.

Demands of the parties to the conflict

The Lebanese public is reacting with division to the announcement. While government representatives emphasize their willingness to talk, relatives of displaced persons are calling for an immediate withdrawal of the Israeli army. In recent months, tens of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon have had to leave their homes.

Militarily, the Israeli army has expanded its positions in southern Lebanon over the past weeks. According to army statements, further Hezbollah positions have been destroyed and weapons caches uncovered. These claims cannot be independently verified; Hezbollah has repeatedly reported its own successes, such as the downing of drones and the shelling of Israeli positions.

Observers in the region see the planned talks as an attempt to at least temporarily contain the violence. A comprehensive solution to the conflict, however, is considered unlikely as long as the fundamental positions — full withdrawal on one side, full disarmament on the other — remain irreconcilable.

The developments on the northern border have direct consequences for the residents of northern Israel. Tens of thousands of citizens have left their communities in the border region since October 7, 2023. The Israeli government views their return as directly tied to the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Impact on the civilian population

International humanitarian organizations point to the situation of the civilian population in southern Lebanon. According to UN figures, a significant portion of the population is dependent on aid deliveries, and supplies of water, electricity, and medical assistance are disrupted in many places. The announcement of new talks is seen as a positive signal, but does not change the precarious situation in the short term.

If the round of talks in Rome does indeed take place, it would be the first direct encounter between the two sides since the fighting flared up again last year. Expectations are low, but any continuation of the dialogue is considered politically significant — both for the Israeli government ahead of the elections and for the Lebanese side, which wants to present itself internationally as willing to negotiate.