IW Study Warns of Loss of Prosperity in Eastern Germany Without Immigration

IW Warning: Care and Services Under Pressure

Concrete evidence is the loss of 7,800 employees from EU countries. According to the IW, this figure represents a decline that is already showing up in statistics and could intensify further in the future if no countermeasures are taken.

Since 2024, the economic researchers have observed an increasing trend of return migration to countries that joined the EU since 2004. They cite the improved economic situation in these countries of origin as the reason, which once again offers attractive prospects for many workers.

Return Migration to Central and Eastern European EU Countries

According to the IW's assessment, the eastern German federal states are particularly affected, as they already struggle with a weaker demographic base and an older population structure. Regions such as Mecklenburg-Vorpommern could therefore suffer disproportionately from a lack of immigration.

The study also points to migration patterns specific to individual countries. While immigration from Syria and Nigeria has declined sharply in recent years, return migration to Poland and other Central and Eastern European EU states has increased noticeably. This fundamentally shifts the composition of foreign workers in Germany.

For the economy, this development means lower growth potential, a shrinking tax base, and rising social spending per capita. The IW calculates that without immigration, economic output in Eastern Germany could stagnate or even decline in the medium term, while per capita incomes come under pressure.

Economic Consequences and Recommendations

The researchers therefore recommend targeted recruitment of international skilled workers, better integration programs, and a more active design of immigration policy. Increasing the labor force participation of women and older workers could also offset some of the demographic pressure.

The study is politically explosive because it intervenes in a debate about limiting immigration that has intensified over the past months. With its warnings, the IW clearly positions itself against a restrictive immigration policy and provides economic arguments for an open and managed immigration policy.

Political Context of the Debate

Regardless of the political assessment, the underlying demographic trend is clear: the Eastern German population is shrinking and aging, so that without immigration, fewer people will be available for the labor market in the medium term. The study makes this connection visible with concrete figures.

The IW announces that it will continue to monitor developments and publish updated scenarios at regular intervals. Policymakers and the economy must prepare for a phase in which competition for workers within Europe will increase significantly.

Overall, the study paints a picture of a region at a crossroads: if immigration can be secured and managed, prosperity and services will be maintained; if not, noticeable losses in income, growth, and public services are looming.