Marine Le Pen Insists on 2027 Presidential Candidacy — Despite Confirmed Conviction

The Paris appeals court had on Tuesday upheld Le Pen's original conviction from March 2025 for the embezzlement of EU funds amounting to more than four million euros, but noticeably reduced the sentence. Instead of a five-year ban from public office, the court imposed a disqualification of 45 months, of which 30 months were suspended. Since 15 months have already passed since the original verdict, Le Pen is de facto eligible to run again. The prison sentence of one year is to be served as an ankle bracelet sentence. The responsible prosecutor Marie-Suzanne Le Quéau confirmed on Wednesday that Le Pen could "begin the campaign without an ankle bracelet," but pointed out that she would have to wear the ankle bracelet "at the end of the campaign" if the Court of Cassation delivered its verdict before the election.

Background: The EU Assistants Affair

In the polls, Le Pen has for months been clearly ahead of all conceivable rival candidates with well over 30 percent. While in her first candidacy in 2012 she placed third with 17.90 percent, she lost in 2017 and 2022 in the runoff against Emmanuel Macron — with 33.90 percent in the first duel and 41.45 percent in the second. With Bardella, the 30-year-old party leader of the Rassemblement National, the right-wing populist nevertheless has a deputy who in polls achieves even a slightly higher approval rating (35 percent) than she herself does.

The background to the proceedings is the so-called affair involving parliamentary assistants of the Front national in the European Parliament. Le Pen was accused of misusing EU funds — including to pay for the majordomo of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. The court emphasized the "objective gravity" of the acts. During the appeal trial, Le Pen acknowledged that "irregularities had occurred," but rejected any personal intent to enrich herself. The sentence was not a case of personal enrichment, she stressed, nevertheless the conduct was "fundamentally inexcusable when one runs as a candidate for law and order" — an argument that her political opponents are now turning against her.

Tandem with Bardella: Loyalty and Suppressed Disappointment

At Le Pen's side on Wednesday in La Flèche appeared, as expected, Jordan Bardella, who had been regarded as the natural successor and "joker" in the event of a final conviction. Bardella was demonstratively loyal. "I am absolutely delighted that we can once again go into the campaign together with Marine, because millions of French people today long for change," he said. He denied any tension or difference with Le Pen: "We work together the way we have always worked together." While Le Pen beamed at these words, Bardella's expression stubbornly refused to brighten. Asked whether he was disappointed at not being allowed to run as a candidate himself, he gave an evasive answer.

Le Pen announced that she would continue to form "a tandem" with Bardella. If she were actually elected president, she promised, she would appoint the 30-year-old as prime minister. With this personnel decision — and a demonstrative appearance in La Flèche, a town some 200 kilometers southwest of Paris that had been captured by the RN in the last municipal elections — the right-wing populist simultaneously officially launched her campaign under the motto "Pour la France, la Renaissance" (For France, the Rebirth).

Program and Economy: Populist, but Economically Unclear

The program she presented to her supporters serves up the RN's classic themes: security, immigration, criticism of the government's economic record. "Marine Le Pen doit réconcilier l'électorat des petits commerçants qui sont surtaxés, les retraités qui ont peur des étrangers, les personnes qui se sentent déclassés du nord de la France," summarized one observer. In concrete terms, this means: reduction of VAT on energy, increases in pensions, a retirement age of 62 — all financed through unspecified "imaginary methods," as critics note. The economist Renaud Foucart of Lancaster University criticized the lack of economic coherence of the program, stating: "Il n'y a pas vraiment de politique économique."

Risks and Side Effects: Justice, Acceptance, and Possible Split

With regard to Le Pen's legal troubles and the question of how many defeats the RN's electorate will still accept, assessments are divided. The pollster Jérôme Fourquet believes that Le Pen's legal problems do not greatly bother her voters, since they already see themselves as "victims of a political-media-judicial system." He pointed to Louis Aliot, the party's vice-chairman who was also convicted in the embezzlement affair, who in March was re-elected on the first round as mayor of Perpignan. Foucart, by contrast, holds: "C'est vraiment du populisme classique" and warns that Le Pen's fourth attempt at the Élysée is risky. If she loses against a "competent center-right candidate," the argument of "integrity" will become her undoing.

Political opponents reacted with sharp criticism. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal accused Le Pen on Wednesday on the broadcaster France Inter of taking the entire presidential campaign "hostage." The left-wing politician Raphaël Glucksmann denounced on RTL the "Le Pen rule": "Man ist verurteilt und schließt daraus, dass man Präsident der Republik werden kann", he said. On the marketplace in La Flèche, a few dozen opponents also gathered on Wednesday. "We are against the far right coming to power," said one demonstrator. Le Pen and Bardella therefore stayed shorter than expected.

Reactions: Criticism from the Left, Support from the Base

Among supporters, approval prevailed in the meantime. The supporter Magalie said: "Ich denke, andere Politiker haben auch nicht unbedingt eine weiße Weste." Another, Charlotte, had traveled from the region specifically to see Le Pen: "Sie hat den Kopf oben behalten, ihr Lächeln behalten, alles prima." The RN politician Bruno Mégret had once tried to exist as number two and successor of Jean-Marie Le Pen — an attempt that ended with a split. Bardella as well, it is said in the party, knows that he would have been more likely to win a presidential election than his boss, who has already run three times unsuccessfully since 2012.

Foucart sees in Le Pen's decision "a personal calculation above all": "Je pense que c'est la défense de la dynastie Le Pen et de sa place dans la politique française", he said. The 57-year-old has also made clear that she has no intention of relinquishing power: "Elle n'a pas 60 ans et n'a clairement pas l'intention de laisser la barre à quelqu'un d'autre." Some observers interpret the self-image of the politician, who by her own account only "gives up when one is dead," as a sign that the RN will remain rallied behind her as figurehead for the foreseeable future. Others warn: "Si elle perd, on peut s'attendre à de nouvelles dissidences et, à terme, à une explosion de son parti" — if new splinter groups form after another defeat, the party could fall apart in the long term.

Until then, the right-wing populist remains, in the words of sociologist Safia Dahani, "at the center of attention." Her greatest asset: she is the candidate with whom the RN comes furthest in the polls. Bardella thus remains for now in the role of designated prime minister and political protégé in the second rank — even if his image as the party's "joker" is now on ice for the time being. As one of Le Pen's close associates put it: "Bei Le Pen gibt man nie auf."