Appeal Verdict in Paris: Decision on Le Pen's Candidacy in the 2027 Presidential Election

On Tuesday, the Paris Court of Appeal will issue its decision in the case. If the court confirms the immediate effect of the ban on holding office, a candidacy by Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election on May 18, 2027 would effectively be ruled out, since the passive voting right would remain revoked until that date.

The Starting Point: Embezzlement of EU Funds

An acquittal on appeal is considered unlikely by observers. "This is considered unlikely," writes the Deutsche Presse-Agentur. According to the historian Jean Garrigues, the appeal judges are under enormous public pressure, as it is "the first time" that "a probable candidate – moreover a favorite like Marine Le Pen – could be prevented from running by a court ruling."

Marine Le Pen had rejected all responsibility before the first verdict and later said: "I wouldn't be dead, after all. No matter how it turns out, I will continue to fight for my ideas." At the same time, she questioned a candidacy while wearing an electronic ankle monitor: "If you're a candidate, you need full freedom of movement," she said.

If Le Pen is indeed unable to run, the Rassemblement National will field the 30-year-old party leader Jordan Bardella. "If Le Pen does not run, her Rassemblement National will field 30-year-old party leader Jordan Bardella," according to the dpa report. Bardella is considered the Le Pen alternative and has led the party since 2022.

Plan B: Jordan Bardella

Bardella was made the lead candidate for the European elections by Le Pen at the age of 23 and took over the party chairmanship at 27. In polls, he has meanwhile sometimes achieved better numbers than his mentor. Both lead the polls at least for the first round by a clear margin over potential candidates from other camps.

While Le Pen continues to present the RN as a movement that is "neither right nor left," but rather a representative of the people against the elites, the 30-year-old Bardella deliberately seeks proximity to the conservative right and the economically liberal camp. In terms of policy, observers say he remains on Le Pen's radical EU line.

Political observers interpret the possible shift in candidacy as a break with the political course of recent years. An unnamed "party heavyweight" said: "Everything has been built around Marine Le Pen over the past 20 years; we would have to realign everything."

Possible Sentences and Their Consequences

Even with a milder sentence, a candidacy would be conceivable – but if an electronic ankle monitor were required, Le Pen has already indicated she would not want to run. If the sentence is confirmed but the immediate execution is suspended, Le Pen could still appeal to the Court of Cassation, but a ruling before the presidential election in April 2027 is not expected.

The Court of Cassation has, however, announced that it will issue its decision before the presidential election, should the case reach it. The decisive date for the right to be elected to public office is the first round of voting.

Le Pen herself had said after the verdict in March 2025 on the channel TF1: "The presiding judge deliberately opted for immediate effect of my ineligibility, in order to make the appeal essentially useless." Later, before the assembled party supporters, she made clear: If the judiciary forbids her from running in the presidential election, "then I will support Jordan Bardella every day, with all my energy, and until electoral victory."

Reactions from Politics and the Judiciary

From the judges' perspective, Le Pen stood at the center of a system of embezzlement and led it with "determination and authority." "According to the judge, Le Pen was at the center of a system of embezzlement," the dpa report states. In the first trial, the prosecution had imposed on her a custodial sentence of two years with electronic ankle monitoring, an additional two years suspended, a fine, and the immediate five-year ban on running for office.

Marine Le Pen took over the party from her father Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2011 and pursued a course of "de-demonization" in order to soften the party's far-right image. In 2016, she expelled her father from the party. Jean-Marie Le Pen had founded the party and is considered antisemitic and a Holocaust revisionist.

In past presidential elections, Marine Le Pen achieved growing support: in 2012 she received 18 percent of the votes, in 2017 it was 34 percent, and in 2022 she reached 41 percent of voter support. For the upcoming election, she will likely still not be able to run if the Court of Appeal upholds the verdict.

Le Pen's Political Career

Conservative politicians criticize Bardella for lacking experience. For instance, according to the BBC, the candidate of the conservative Républicains, Bruno Retailleau, took a jab at Bardella and pointed out that he is only 30. Bardella, in turn, is seen within the right-wing camp as having a comparatively moderate demeanor.

Marine Le Pen intends to announce on Tuesday evening at 8:00 p.m. in the evening news whether she will run for the French presidency. The court's decision is thus likely to have an immediate impact on the RN's election campaign.

The consequences of the appeal proceedings extend far beyond the individual case: if Le Pen is indeed unable to stand for election, the upcoming presidential election would be the first since 1981 without the name Le Pen on the ballot.

Outlook for Tuesday Evening

Marine Le Pen has three adult children with her first husband Franck Chauffroy. She separated from her long-time partner and party colleague Louis Aliot in 2019; no new relationship has been publicly known since then. She grew up in the Villa Montretout in the affluent Parisian suburb of Saint-Cloud.

The report was broadcast on July 7, 2026 on the program Deutschlandfunk. The dpa report describes the day as a potential "day of fate" for the politician.