National Education Report 2026: Birth decline does not relieve daycare centers and schools

However, declining child numbers do not automatically mean less strain. "Die sinkenden Zahlen bedeuten dem Bericht zufolge aber nicht unbedingt eine Entlastung des Systems" (According to the report, the declining numbers do not necessarily mean a relief of the system), it states. On the contrary: "Vor dem Hintergrund des Rechtsanspruchs auf ganztägige Förderung und Betreuung im Primarbereich erhöhen sich die Ressourcenbedarfe" (Against the backdrop of the legal entitlement to all-day support and care in the primary sector, resource requirements are increasing). The entitlement to an all-day place at primary school is exacerbating the situation.

Childcare gaps among the youngest

A paradoxical development is also evident in daycare centers. For the first time, the number of children under three cared for in daycare centers is "sinkt die Zahl der in Kitas betreuten Kinder unter drei Jahren erstmals auch im Westen Deutschlands" (declining for the first time also in western Germany). At the same time, "'Beteiligungsquoten' noch leicht" (participation rates rose slightly: that means, more children of an age cohort are being cared for). Parental demand remains "konstant hoch" (constantly high) and continues "weiterhin nicht gedeckt" (not to be met), as the report emphasizes.

The gaps are particularly large for the youngest: "Weiterhin bestehen insbesondere für unter 3-Jährige Betreuungslücken" (Childcare gaps continue to exist in particular for children under 3). At primary schools too, "bleibe der Bedarf von Eltern an Ganztagsplätzen konstant hoch" (parents' demand for all-day places remains constantly high). Growing childcare ratios combined with a decline in absolute numbers are "nicht automatisch mit Entlastungseffekten verbunden" (not automatically linked to relief effects), the authors write.

Weaker competencies

In addition to the childcare situation, the report diagnoses significant quality problems. "Kompetenzen in Lesen, Mathematik und Naturwissenschaften werden insgesamt schwächer" (Competencies in reading, mathematics, and the natural sciences are overall weakening). Co-author Kai Maaz of the Leibniz Institute for Educational Research warns: "Zu viele junge Menschen erreichen grundlegende Kompetenzziele nicht" (Too many young people do not reach basic competency goals).

In his statement, Maaz contextualizes the findings: "Das verweist auf längerfristige strukturelle Probleme bei der Sicherung dieser Kompetenzen und damit auf eine zentrale Schwäche des Bildungssystems" (This points to longer-term structural problems in securing these competencies and thus to a central weakness of the education system). Educational success remains closely tied to background in Germany: "Bildungserfolg hängt in Deutschland von Bedingungen im Elternhaus ab" (In Germany, educational success depends on conditions in the parental home).

Measures against educational inequality

To reduce unequal opportunities, the states have launched a total of 347 measures for the period 2024 to 2026, according to the report, with the federal government launching an additional 13. The authors, however, do not yet see a breakthrough: "Nötig seien jedoch ein koordinierter Ansatz und klare Zielsetzungen" (What is needed, however, is a coordinated approach and clear objectives).

The report "Education in Germany" has been published every two years for 20 years "als umfassende Bestandsaufnahme von der Kita bis zur Hochschule" (as a comprehensive stocktaking from daycare to higher education). It is designed as an indicator-based monitoring instrument and is aimed at policymakers, administrators, and the public.

Overall, the 2026 Education Report paints the picture of a system suffering simultaneously from shrinkage and growing demand. According to the report, the declining child numbers do not open up a simple dictate to save money, but make deliberate management of the freed-up resources necessary — toward better quality, more all-day offerings, and more consistent equality of opportunity.

At the same time, the report points out that not all children have the same starting conditions. The strong link between social background and educational success remains a "zentrale Schwäche" (central weakness). Maaz and his co-authors therefore advocate for a coordinated approach by the federal government, states, and municipalities.