NATO Summit in Ankara: Europeans Increase Defense Spending, Trump Threatens New Conflicts

According to the official agenda, the focus of the meeting is on the level of defense spending, the strengthening of the European arms industry, and further aid for Ukraine. "Officially, the heads of state and government are discussing the level of their defense spending, the strengthening of the European arms industry, and further Ukraine aid," is the assessment. The summit begins in the evening with a working dinner at the presidential palace, followed by the working session on Wednesday morning. The summit was scaled down to a working session on Wednesday morning. There will be a dinner in what is likely a lavish setting in the evening.

While US President Donald Trump continues to sharply criticize the European partners, the latter have significantly increased their defense budgets in recent years. "Last year, the NATO states had agreed to spend a total of five percent of their economic power on defense and security in the future," having agreed to invest five percent of gross domestic product in defense and security by 2035. Of that, 3.5 percent is to go to classical defense, with a further 1.5 percent for areas such as infrastructure.

European Rearmament: "Breathtaking" or Not Enough?

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised the Europeans' efforts in an interview with the Turkish state television broadcaster. The Europeans had increased their defense spending in a "breathtaking" fashion, Rutte said. According to his figures, European allies and Canada are already investing around four percent of their gross domestic product in defense and security. According to dpa information, about 2.5 percent of this goes to classical defense spending and 1.5 percent to other defense-related areas such as infrastructure. NATO without the USA increased its military spending in the previous year by 20 percent to around 500 billion euros. 17 of the 32 NATO members now spend at least two percent of their GDP on defense.

Nonetheless, the criticism from Washington does not cease. US President Donald Trump had ranted only a few days earlier in a post on Truth Social that the USA was paying more money for NATO than everyone else combined without getting anything in return. "And that the Europeans were paying too little – he even criticized the model student Germany," the article stated. The German government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), plans to participate in the summit. The Western European major powers France and Great Britain also remain targets of criticism from the US president, who called Germany's NATO contribution "ridiculous."

Trump Threatens and Demands: Pressure on Europe Ahead of the Summit

Trump had also threatened not to support the Europeans militarily in the Ukraine conflict should they not sufficiently purchase US arms. "Those who buy too few American arms or contradict cannot count on the assistance of the USA in a war," is the assessment. At the same time, the US president criticized the behavior of European partners in the war against Iran. Trump reacted with annoyance at the critical stance of some NATO states toward the US war against Iran. Ahead of the meeting in the Turkish capital, there is growing concern that Donald Trump is seeking a confrontation.

Against the backdrop of these tensions, the defense industry forum, previously organized as a side event, will for the first time be an official part of the NATO summit program. "Several agreements between the alliance partners are expected," according to the planning. During a defense industry forum, arms deals worth billions are to be concluded. The European NATO states want to announce billion-euro arms contracts at the meeting in Ankara today in order to demonstrate their increased defense spending ahead of the summit with Trump.

Turkey in the Spotlight: Second-Largest Army and Growing Arms Industry

Turkey as an emerging arms nation is also in focus. According to figures from the Stockholm Peace Research Institute SIPRI, Turkish military spending recently rose by 7.2 percent compared to the previous year to more than 30 billion US dollars. This places Turkey 18th worldwide. Ankara wants to increase its defense spending to five percent of gross domestic product by the end of 2030. Turkey has a rapidly growing arms industry and exported weapons and equipment worth ten billion US dollars last year. Turkey is an important country with its roughly 3,000 companies in the defense sector, Rutte said. "As far as developments in the military-industrial area are concerned, Turkey can contribute more than most other countries," explained Hüseyin Bağcı, professor at the Middle East Technical University.

At the same time, the planned US support for the Turkish fighter jet KAAN raises questions. The prestige project still has problems with its engines; US-made solutions could provide temporary help. The personal connection between Trump and Erdogan is considered to be good. US President Donald Trump has made it clear that he is coming primarily because of the Turkish president. "He would not travel for most of the others, he is going to the summit out of respect for Erdoğan," Trump said. The US president announced: "He is a strong member of NATO. Yes, I will probably do something that will make him very happy."

Another focus is Ukraine aid. According to a leaked draft of the summit declaration, European NATO partners and Canada want to provide Kyiv with 70 billion euros this year. For Ukraine, 70 billion euros each is being earmarked for the coming two years. The basis is reportedly to be a joint declaration stating that the basis for ceasefire negotiations with Russia should be the current front lines – and not further-reaching Russian demands. Most of this money is not new; it is already accounted for via the EU or individual member states. This leaves around 80 billion euros from the national budgets of the NATO states to be financed. The USA will not participate. The EU has approved a loan of 90 billion euros, which partly flows into the aid package for Ukraine.

Ukraine Aid: 70 Billion Euros Without the USA

In addition, an EU aid package will provide Ukraine with around 60 billion euros for defense-related spending through the end of 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the dinner and is likely to meet Trump on the margins of the summit. Zelensky is expected in Ankara on Wednesday for a direct meeting with Trump. The Ukrainian president has requested further support for air defense in view of the recent attacks on his country.

Meanwhile, Turkey is seeking greater involvement in European defense initiatives. It lies at the intersection of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East and borders several crisis regions. As a neighboring country, it controls the straits between the Aegean and the Black Sea on the basis of the Montreux Convention. In recent years, it has also tried to position itself as a mediator in international crises – such as in the Ukraine war and the tensions surrounding Iran. Turkey can offer not only military but also diplomatic strength. During the landing maneuvers in Germany, Turkey was a mainstay; it has proven that it can make its contribution even 2,000 kilometers away. "That is very valuable for NATO," it was said in this context.

Burden Shift Instead of Burden Sharing: The Concept of "Burden Shift"

A central concept of the summit is the "burden shift" – a shift of burdens rather than merely a sharing of burdens. One solution: burden shift instead of just burden sharing. The European NATO states are to buy more military goods, but above all take on more military responsibility. The USA is calling, under the slogan "NATO 3.0," for a reorganization of the military alliance. Canada and the European member states are to bear more of the burden. At the same time, the USA wants European allies to spend more money with US firms while ramping up their own production.

According to analysts, this model contains contradictions. Trump is demanding that the Europeans become more militarily independent. At the same time, however, he wants them to remain dependent on the USA in arms policy. Security expert Ulrike Franke of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said: "Die europäischen NATO-Partner haben jetzt weniger Angst, Trump hat ihnen ohnehin schon alles angedroht, was soll jetzt noch kommen?" Franke also explained: "Die Drohung, Grönland zu erobern war für die Europäer ein enormer Schock – und ein Wendepunkt."

The reliability of the USA within the alliance is fundamentally in question. For NATO, therefore, not only Russia is a threat – even more dangerous is the internal decay. According to the analysis of the reporting, the Europeans lack a power center that could take over the leadership role in a war in place of the USA. In addition, the USA is withdrawing military capabilities from Europe. Authorities in France and the Netherlands are removing American technology from their systems as part