Ortega declares the end of free elections in Nicaragua

Opposition in exile, repression at home

Chamorro, daughter of former President Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, whom Ortega defeated in 1990, was stripped of her citizenship along with 221 other political prisoners. She had been accused of money laundering and tax evasion. According to Ortega's words, «Die Parteien der Opposition […] niemals wieder die Möglichkeit erhalten, an die Macht zurückzukehren». The opposition today essentially operates only from exile.

Internationally, the line is meeting with sharp criticism. The last elections of 2021 were heavily criticized internationally, and the UN Human Rights Council accuses Ortega of having turned Nicaragua into an authoritarian state and of systematically violating human rights. Since 2018, hundreds of regime officials have been under sanctions. In the 2021 election campaign, Ortega had clearly won – with his wife Rosario Murillo as co-president; Murillo is said to be standing by as designated successor in case the 80-year-old can no longer continue to rule.

International criticism and geopolitical tensions

During Donald Trump's first presidency, the White House had classified Nicaragua together with Venezuela and Cuba as a «Troika of Tyranny» and called for democratic reforms. According to reports, the USA has overthrown Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro this year; the Cuban government has been forced into far-reaching reforms by a tightened embargo policy, the article continues. At the time of reporting, the US government had not responded to Ortega's latest announcement.

Repression is also felt domestically. In 2018, Ortega violently cracked down on protests, killing more than 300 people. The president's term of office had previously been extended to six years by constitutional amendment. Ortega himself had brought the Sandinistas to power in 1979 – «Am 19. Juli 1979 stürzten Ortega und seine Genossen von der Sandinistischen Nationalen Befreiungsfront das Regime des Diktators Anastasio Somoza». Now, according to political scientist Alina Ripplinger of the Hamburg Giga Institute, he has «eigentlich das gleiche Regime wieder aufgebaut».

Analysis: Ortega as heir and destroyer of the revolution

Ripplinger describes the approach as a long-term project: «Dieses quasi-politische Modell wird seit 20 Jahren verfolgt – mit einer Kontrolle über die Opposition, Wahlreformen sowie mit einer Abschaffung jeglicher Gewaltenteilung und des Rechtsstaats.» The 1979 revolution had «viele machtpolitische, militärische und teils auch gewaltsame Elemente» and was «stark ideologisiert». Today's repression, Ripplinger says, extends «bis hin zu Mordanschlägen – bis ins Ausland».

Ortega has long positioned himself politically against the possibility of the opposition's re-election, said exile lawyer and political scientist Eliseo Núñez in the newspaper El País: «Sollte der Druck aus den USA ihn irgendwann zu Verhandlungen zwingen, ist der Ausgangspunkt nicht mehr, dass es in Nicaragua freie und faire Wahlen geben soll. Die neue Ausgangslage lautet dann schlicht: Es gibt gar keine Wahlen.» The opposition, in the assessment of observers, is fragmented and offers Ortega no common political counterweight.

Reactions from exile

Opposition politician Felix Maradiaga described the suspension of elections to Reuters as a «Eingeständnis von Angst», not as a sign of strength. Nicaragua has just under seven million inhabitants. Should Ortega have to give up power, Murillo is designated as vice president and co-president.

With the declaration that no more elections will be held in the future, Ortega is tightening the authoritarian course his government has been pursuing for years. Observers see this as a turning point: the last remaining ritual of democratic legitimation is being suspended, while control over the judiciary, the media, and political competitors has already largely been completed.