Ortega rules out future elections in Nicaragua

The next presidential election in Nicaragua is scheduled for 2027 according to the current electoral calendar. Elections had originally been set for November 2021. A constitutional reform had at one point extended the president's term of office from five to six years. Ortega began his fourth consecutive term in 2021; before that, he had already been head of state of Nicaragua from 1979 to 1990.

Ortega, a former guerrilla fighter and leader of the Sandinista Revolution, returned to power in 2007. Since then, he has governed the Central American country with increasing authoritarianism. At this year's commemoration marking the 47th anniversary of the Revolution, he reaffirmed his distancing from the opposition and accused it of constantly plotting to win elections: "Sie schmieden ständig Komplotte (…), suchen nach Wegen, Parteien zu gründen, damit diese bei einer möglichen Wahl dann gewinnen würde."

International pressure and sanctions

He also said he would prevent parties backed by the United States from coming to power in Nicaragua. With this formulation, Ortega drew on a recurring motif of his political rhetoric that portrays the United States as an external enemy and the opposition as its extended arm. Observers see this as a continuation of the long-standing line of confrontation toward Washington.

The European Union has imposed sanctions on Nicaragua that target, among others, representatives of the government and the security apparatus. The United States and the EU question the legitimacy of elections in Nicaragua and criticize the president's authoritarian power structure.

Nicaragua's opposition movement says it has been driven into exile. It is counting on international pressure ultimately making free elections in the country possible again. Human rights organizations and individual governments have repeatedly decried the imprisonment of opposition politicians, journalists, and representatives of civil society.

Outlook on the next elections

The event on Sunday officially served to commemorate the Sandinista Revolution of 1979, which ended the dictatorship of the Somoza family and brought Ortega to power for the first time. By linking the commemoration of the revolution with the rejection of future elections, the Sandinista leadership underscores its claim to permanently restrict political competition.

International observers interpret the speech as a signal of a further consolidation of the authoritarian course in Nicaragua. At the same time, pressure from abroad is growing: the United States and the EU are sticking to their sanctions and fundamentally questioning the credibility of Nicaragua's institutions.

For the opposition, it remains to be seen whether the announced renunciation of elections is legally or politically enforceable. A complete halt to election dates would constitute a break with the Nicaraguan constitution, which provides for elections as a periodic institution. The coming years are therefore considered decisive for the further development of the political order in the Central American country.