Over 230 Economists Warn of an AI Wave with Consequences Beyond the Industrial Revolution

According to the experts' assessment, the rapid advancement of AI technology could trigger an economic upheaval that surpasses that of the Industrial Revolution – and within a far shorter timeframe. The declaration warns "that the impacts of artificial intelligence could be more far-reaching than those of the Industrial Revolution, but will occur within a much shorter period." The signatories expect that "AI is likely to become radically more capable over the coming decade."

Among the nearly 200 signatories are 16 Nobel laureates, including MIT professors Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, who received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2024. Other signatories include former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark, as well as the chief economists of the two AI developers OpenAI and Anthropic. This is also reflected in the fact that the names of numerous experts appear who had previously taken a rather skeptical view of AI's potential.

Prominent Signatories

According to co-organizer Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University, one of the most urgent tasks is to develop better measurement methods for AI's proliferation and impact. "The lack of reliable data has severely hampered research to date, as different measurements have produced contradictory results regarding actual job losses," Brynjolfsson explained, according to the New York Times, which first reported on the letter. The warning is the latest sign that an increasing number of experts in economics are convinced that the risks of the AI revolution are being underestimated.

Acemoglu emphasizes that such rapid development could jeopardize the livelihoods of many people if developments from the industrial robotics sector repeat themselves in a shorter time. "He advocates that AI labs should develop tools that complement human labor rather than replace it entirely," the letter continues. The Swedish financial company Klarna is cited as a cautionary example: "There, AI was supposed to largely take over human tasks, but then the financial company ended up relying more on people after all."

Call for Political Action

The signatories call on economists, politicians, and business leaders to act immediately to better understand the economic aspects of transformative AI – "to understand the economic dynamics of transformative AI and to create the incentives, guardrails, and institutions needed to steer AI in a direction that complements people and benefits society." However, the letter contains no concrete policy recommendations.

The issue is also making waves in Germany. In the spring, Digital Minister Karsten Wildberger called for the country to prepare for dramatic job losses due to the advance of Artificial Intelligence. The CDU politician also expressed the expectation, however, that AI will create new jobs.

According to the signatories' assessment, the political decisions made in the coming years will determine the winners and losers of this development. Experts warn that social safety nets such as unemployment insurance are not prepared for such a wave. However, the authors of the paper deliberately leave open exactly how policymakers and society should respond to the projected upheaval.