Politbarometer: Majority Sees No Improved Government Work from Cabinet Reshuffle

Sunday Question: Union Leads, AfD Strongest Force in Eastern Germany

On the Sunday question, the Union remains the strongest force by a clear margin. The CDU and CSU sit well ahead of all other parties in the survey, while the SPD once again only reaches values in the low double digits. The AfD positions itself well above the other five parties represented in the Bundestag in voter favor, without, however, closing the gap to the Union.

For the FDP, the Left, and the BSW, the survey values show stable to fluctuating support at or below the five-percent threshold. It therefore remains open which of these parties could realistically achieve entry into the Bundestag in the next election. The Forschungsgruppe Wahlen points out that methodologically, both landline and mobile numbers were taken into account, and that online interviews were also part of the sampling procedure.

Personal Ratings: Merz Remains Above Average

Friedrich Merz personally continues to perform above average in the comparison of the most important politicians. His popularity rating, according to the data from the Mannheim research group, is above the average of leading politicians, even if approval is somewhat lower than in earlier surveys.

The AfD, whose leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla also compare favorably in the eyes of respondents, benefits according to the Politbarometer primarily from dissatisfaction with the work of the governing coalition. The Forschungsgruppe Wahlen sees this as a central explanatory pattern for the party's persistently high ratings in eastern Germany.

Regional Picture: West-East Divide Confirmed

While the Union dominates in the west of the republic, the AfD remains, according to the survey, the strongest political force in the eastern federal states. This regional split, which has been emerging for years in the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen's surveys, has, according to the data, not diminished even after the cabinet reshuffle. On the contrary, the researchers see indications that perceptions of government performance between west and east are continuing to drift further apart.

Overall, the Politbarometer paints the picture of a politically divided republic. The federal government is confronted with a survey that does not reward its reform efforts, while the opposition AfD can maintain its position as the strongest force in parts of Germany. Which concrete political projects the coalition will put forward in response to this data situation was still open at the time of the survey.