Putin convenes crisis meeting: Russia suffers fuel shortages following Ukrainian drone strikes

From Controlled Image to Crisis Meeting

President Vladimir Putin, who has presented himself since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression as a head of state who has everything under control, has now spoken publicly for the first time in an interview about "problems" and a shortage of fuel. This choice of words marks a remarkable departure from the previous line, under which the leadership in Moscow had tended to downplay the economic impacts of the war. Connected to this admission is the convening of a crisis meeting, in which measures to stabilize supply are to be discussed.

The Ukrainian side is meanwhile continuing its drone strikes on Russian oil facilities. According to information from Kyiv, Ukrainian drones recently hit two Russian refineries, with the stated goal of diminishing Moscow's war revenues. This strategy aims to strike directly at the financial base of the Russian state for the continuation of the war of aggression. The Ukrainian leadership views attacks on energy infrastructure as a lever to increase pressure on the Kremlin.

Attacks on Energy Infrastructure as Ukrainian Strategy

The immediate consequences of the attacks are being felt by people in Russia in their daily lives. Numerous gas stations lack gasoline and diesel, and supply shortages extend throughout the entire country. Observers assess this development as one of the clearest indications to date that the sanctions policy of Western states, in combination with the Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure, is taking effect.

The political consequences were discussed by the news channel ZDFheute live on the evening of June 28 at 6:30 p.m. in a special broadcast. The panel was moderated by Christian Hoch, with guests ZDF Russia correspondent Sebastian Ehm and economic expert Janis Kluge. At the center of the broadcast was the question of how great the pressure on Putin has now become and whether Ukraine, with its attacks on the fuel supply, is actually hitting Putin's weak point so severely that he must return to the negotiating table.

Military Escalation and Civilian Casualties

That the Russian leadership is taking this pressure seriously can also be read from the Kremlin's recent statements. The Kremlin rejects Ukrainian proposals and insists on the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from four regions. A willingness to negotiate that goes beyond the previous maximalist demands is currently not apparent. A possible peace settlement is therefore a long way off.

Parallel to the energy crisis, Russia is continuing its military offensive in Ukraine. In the Donetsk region, Russian troops reportedly captured another village. At the same time, Russian strikes hit the Ukrainian cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, killing a total of nine people. In Kharkiv, a woman died following a Russian glide bomb attack. In total, Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities claimed twelve lives, according to consistent reports.

International Reactions and Arrests

Energy supply in the Russian-occupied areas of southern Ukraine is also massively affected. In several localities, power outages occurred, and the supply of electricity to the population there has been interrupted for days. The reports make clear that the war is leaving deep scars not only militarily but also in the supply infrastructure on both sides.

Internationally, the Russian approach continues to cause tensions. France has seized a previously stopped Russian tanker, with which Paris is sending a clear signal to Moscow's shadow fleet. Poland, meanwhile, arrested suspected agents of Russian intelligence services and at the same time announced the purchase of three new submarines from Sweden. Both steps are interpreted as signs of the growing confrontational line of Eastern European states toward Moscow.

Economic Levers and Moscow's War Financing

The situation in northeastern Europe also remains tense. Russia warned Finland against lifting its ban on nuclear weapons. The threatening gesture from Moscow comes at a time when the debate about nuclear deterrence is gaining momentum in several NATO states. Russia is evidently trying to counter at an early stage any possible softening of the Finnish position with regard to nuclear weapons on its own national territory.

The economic dimension of the fuel crisis is closely linked to the overall situation of the Russian state budget. Since a significant portion of Russian state revenue comes from the export of crude oil and petroleum products, the Ukrainian attacks on refineries hit the Kremlin in a sensitive spot. Every refinery that is taken out of operation diminishes not only domestic supply but also the foreign currency revenues with which Moscow finances the war against Ukraine.

Observers see in the combination of military pressure on the Russian side and a weakening of the economic base on the other side a constellation that is likely to intensify in the coming weeks and months. If Putin fails to stabilize fuel supply in his own country, this could further burden both the domestic political mood and the ability of the Russian state to act. Conversely, the Ukrainian side evidently hopes that the economic pressure will force the regime in Moscow to the negotiating table.

Outlook: Drone Warfare and Negotiations

However, the Kremlin's recent reaction shows that Russia, despite the tense situation, is not willing to back down from its maximalist demands. The reference to the demanded withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from four regions makes clear that Moscow is maintaining its war aims. The hope for a swift diplomatic solution, as harbored in parts of the West, is therefore likely to be limited for the time being.

For the immediate future, a continuation of the Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy facilities is therefore to be expected. Every further outage of a refinery is likely to further worsen the supply situation in Russia and increase the pressure on Putin. At the same time, it remains to be seen whether the Russian leadership will respond with concrete measures such as export bans on fuels, price controls, or the mobilization of reserves to contain the crisis.

The discussion about the right strategy toward Russia continues meanwhile in the European capitals as well. While some are betting on a tightening of sanctions, others are advocating for greater differentiation in order to increase effectiveness. The coming weeks will show whether Ukraine can actually achieve a sustained weakening of the Russian war machine with its drone strategy – or whether Moscow is capable of managing the crisis with the means of an authoritarian state.