Putin insists on full control of Donbas as a condition for peace

Background of the Negotiations

Regarding the state of the Ukrainian armed forces, Putin stated that Ukraine, in turn, lacks soldiers because monthly losses and desertions far exceed new recruitments. He claimed that Ukraine has a monthly deficit of 30,000 soldiers, while 15,000 recruits are drafted into the army each month.

Official figures from Kyiv differ from this account: according to them, Ukraine gains more than 30,000 recruits monthly. Independent figures that could definitively assess these two versions are not available.

Despite his tough conditions, Putin signaled his readiness for dialogue. He said, "We are undoubtedly ready to reach an agreement with Ukraine." He named the agreements reached at a meeting in Anchorage as the basis for such an agreement.

Anchorage Meeting as a Reference Point

US President Donald Trump had hosted Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, the previous summer. There were no publicly announced concrete results from this meeting at the time. Putin now stated that his demand for the entire Donbas does not contradict his readiness for dialogue.

The St. Petersburg Economic Forum, on the sidelines of which the statements were made, is a forum established for years where Russia sends economic and foreign policy signals to an international audience. The press conference with foreign news agencies is considered one of the few opportunities where Putin answers questions from Western journalists for an extended period.

By linking territorial demands with claims of military success, Putin is pursuing a dual strategy, according to observers: on the one hand, the impression is to be created that Russia is successful on the battlefield; on the other hand, pressure is to be increased on Kyiv to agree to Russian conditions.

Discrepancy in Territorial Gains

The Ukrainian government has not yet publicly commented on the renewed maximalist demands. Nothing was initially known about possible reactions from Western allies, particularly the USA and European capitals.

It remains unclear whether the Anchorage agreements mentioned by Putin go beyond the already known key points or whether it is a reinterpretation of earlier discussion results. Without a clear basis for negotiations accepted by both sides, the fronts between Moscow and Kyiv are likely to remain hardened.

Putin's statements come at a time when the question of negotiations on the largest land war in Europe since World War II is being intensely discussed internationally. At the same time, according to Kyiv, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has lost momentum, which could strengthen Moscow's negotiating position from the Russian perspective.

Observers pointed out that the discrepancy between the mentioned territorial gains – 2,440 square kilometers according to the Russian interpretation versus around 700 square kilometers according to Ukrainian calculations – underscores the difficulty of reliably assessing the course of the conflict based on publicly available data.