Record Volume Expected for Sports Betting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup

US Market Growing Rapidly

The American Gaming Association puts the amount legally wagered on sporting events in the USA last year at around 167 billion US dollars, not including the black market. The two largest providers are FanDuel and DraftKings. A survey by the consulting firm PwC also shows: More than half of those Americans who follow the World Cup also plan to place a bet, according to a survey by the consulting firm PwC.

The topic is also present in Austria. The fact that Austria has qualified for a FIFA World Cup for the first time since 1998 has additionally increased attention to betting offerings. Thomas Forstner, Secretary General of the Austrian Association for Betting and Gambling (OVWG), claims to represent online betting providers not licensed in Austria. He told APA: "Es gab ein paar so Ergebnisse bei der WM", so Forstner gegenüber der APA, "und daher Überraschungen ohne Ende".

Legal Situation in Austria

Forstner describes typical betting behavior in Austria as a leisure activity with small stakes. "Der überwiegende Teil der Kundschaft betreibe Sportwetten als Freizeitvergnügen, um Spiele spannender zu machen, und setze meist kleinere Beträge zwischen zehn und 20 Euro ein", said the industry representative. However, a survey commissioned by the law firm Brandl Talos shows that almost three quarters of Austrian bettors ultimately rely on their gut feeling.

The legal classification of sports betting is unusual in Austria. Unlike gambling, sports betting is not subject to the federal monopoly but falls under the jurisdiction of the federal states. The result is differing legal regulations. Sports betting is legally considered a game of skill and not a game of chance.

Surprising match results have already influenced betting behavior during the ongoing tournament. For example, the match of European champion Spain against underdog Cape Verde ended in a goalless 0:0 draw during the current World Cup. A similar situation occurred with Germany's 1:2 defeat against Ecuador, said Forstner with reference to unexpected results.

Prediction Models and Surprises

Curious phenomena from the internet have also left their mark on the betting market. An episode of the US animated series "The Simpsons" from 1997 showed a football match between Mexico and Portugal, which fans later interpreted as a prediction of a possible World Cup final between the two countries. Both teams have since been eliminated. Nevertheless, the discussions on social media platforms led to a noticeable increase in bets placed on this encounter in the World Cup final, reported the US news agency AP at the end of June.

German economist Joachim Klement had developed a prediction model for the 2012 World Cup that takes into account, among other things, gross domestic product per capita, population, climate, the FIFA ranking, and home advantage. With the model, Klement - unintentionally - predicted the winner of the 2012 World Cup; his forecast also proved correct for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, attracting greater attention. For the 2026 World Cup, his model predicted the Netherlands as the winner - and was wrong. "Ich hatte mir zum Ziel gesetzt, zu beweisen, dass Wirtschaftsmodelle nicht so genau sind, wie viele Menschen glauben. Endlich hat sich herausgestellt, dass ich Recht hatte", Klement commented on his Substack page regarding the Netherlands' elimination in the round of 16.

Warnings from Addiction Prevention

Addiction prevention experts view the development with concern. Ewald Lochner, Coordinator for Psychiatry, Addiction, and Drug Issues for the City of Vienna, warns of a so-called illusion of control: "Dabei überschätzen viele Menschen den Einfluss ihres Fachwissens auf ihre Gewinnchancen - eine sogenannte Kontrollillusion, die problematisches Spielverhalten begünstigen kann", he explained. Lisa Brunner, Head of ARGE Suchtprävention, adds: "Zahlreiche Studien zeigen, dass Werbung das Spielverhalten beeinflussen kann - insbesondere bei Jugendlichen und anderen vulnerablen Gruppen", said Lisa Brunner, Head of ARGE Suchtprävention, in a recent statement.

The US Supreme Court had overturned the general ban on sports betting in the United States in 2018 and allowed individual states to enact their own regulatory laws. The market has grown strongly since then. Industry insiders expect that the upcoming World Cup will further reinforce the trend - both in terms of revenue and public attention to the risks of betting.