Serbia after Vučić: The cadres remain, the transition is proving difficult

New candidates, old connections

The political reshuffling comes against the backdrop of an already tense public mood. Aleksandra Krstić, who teaches Medi:Systems at the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade, said: „Ich erwarte zunächst, dass sich die Gemüter beruhigen. Denn die Unzufriedenheit der Bürger mit jenen Medien ist groß, die Propagandisten der Regierung und von Hassrede waren - und keine Journalisten“

The dissatisfaction described by Krstić primarily concerns media outlets that promoted the government and spread hate speech. This explains why many people are unlikely to view a change in personnel as a complete break with the existing communications structures. Calming public sentiment therefore requires more than a change at the top.

Public sentiment and media criticism

The availability of 250 named candidates or nominees would be central to assessing the scale of actual change. However, confirmed information does not indicate how many of these individuals can be attributed to the former power center. Without this breakdown, it remains unclear how substantial the break in personnel within the future party will be.

The European Union’s role is also not specifically described in the available information. For Serbia, the question remains as to how the future government will shape the country’s economic and foreign-policy orientation while managing expectations both at home and abroad. The confirmed facts provide no evidence of a decision or declaration of intent on this matter.

The further course of events is likely to show whether the broad-based nomination of specialists will actually lead to greater distance from the previous system. The decisive factor is not only the number of planned candidates. It is also important which powers, institutional experience, and connections are carried over into the new order.

For now, the picture is one of renewal and continuity: changing the leadership symbolically and organizationally while substantial parts of the cadre persist. This mixture may slow the transition, but it also offers the possibility of bringing new expertise into political work.

How open will the transition be?

According to Krstić, an initial calming of public sentiment is expected. However, if government-aligned media continue to be treated as propagandists, this effect is likely to remain limited. Acceptance of the new cadre therefore depends not only on personnel decisions, but also on the handling of media, oversight, and political communication.

The central question is consequently how many of the 250 planned experts and prominent figures will develop an independent orientation within the future political system. The confirmed facts point to an intended opening through a different selection method, but also to the continuing closeness to key figures from the former circle.

A measured approach is therefore appropriate for the planned transition: Vučić’s departure opens a period of transition, but does not automatically eliminate the structures through which his government exerted political influence for decades. How quickly a new balance emerges from it will depend on the appointments, responsibilities, and practical distance from the previous establishment enjoyed by the future decision-makers.