Vucic announces withdrawal as president and plans to lead ticket in snap parliamentary election

Background: Snap election and SNS strategy

With this move, Vucic is responding to the domestic political situation in the EU candidate nation Serbia. According to the government's wishes, a snap election is intended to secure the SNS majority in parliament. Observers also interpret the announced withdrawal as an attempt to manage the handover of office in an orderly manner and to consolidate the party's election campaign.

The current Prime Minister Ana Brnabic, who is considered a close confidante of Vucic in Belgrade, has most recently been mentioned as a possible successor at the head of state. However, there has been no official confirmation of the personnel decision. The question of who will take over the presidency is likely to be definitively decided only after the election.

Diplomatic dispute over Ratko Mladic

Regardless of the election campaign, the glorification of convicted war criminal Ratko Mladic, who recently died in the detention facility in The Hague, is causing diplomatic unease. Several representatives of the European Union criticized the Serbian government for portraying Mladic as a hero in parts of the public.

The criticism from Brussels targets the handling of the past of the Bosnian War. Mladic was convicted in 2017 by the UN tribunal in The Hague of, among other things, genocide in Srebrenica. His death in custody has reignited a debate in Serbia about how to deal with the country's own history.

EU accession as a litmus test

EU representatives see the handling of Mladic as a litmus test for Serbia's accession prospects. Brussels expects Belgrade to clearly distance itself from war criminals and to actively come to terms with the events of the 1990s. If the glorification remains visible in public, it could continue to weigh on accession negotiations.

On the domestic political front, Vucic is trying to steer the election campaign toward economic issues and the EU course. The government is campaigning with investment programs and a gradual approach to the single market. At the same time, opposition parties warn that the snap election without sufficient preparation weakens the democratic process.

Outlook for the election month

The election on 25 October is considered the first litmus test for the SNS following Vucic's announced withdrawal from the presidency. If the party defends its majority, the change at the head of state is likely to be carried out swiftly. If it loses the majority, both the question of succession and the future direction of the government would have to be renegotiated.

The reaction from the EU to the election campaign remains to be seen. Observers in Belgrade expect Brussels to monitor the vote and the handling of the Mladic debate by the Serbian authorities particularly closely. The coming weeks could therefore be decisive both for Vucic's party and for Belgrade's European course.