Sweden Election 2026: Social Democrats Ahead, Kristersson Trailing

Defeat for Kristersson

The right-wing populist Sweden Democrats, who four years ago had appeared for the first time as a supporting pillar of the conservative coalition, still see themselves as moral winners according to their own statements. «Ich finde trotzdem, dass wir in diesem Wahlkampf Gewinner gewesen sind, weil es so viele Menschen in unserem Land gibt, die es nicht mehr unangenehm finden zu sagen, dass sie Schwedendemokraten sind», a party spokeswoman said on election night.

For the Social Democrats, the result means a return to power after a phase as an opposition party. Andersson had already led the party as prime minister between 2014 and 2021. Now, according to the will of the voters, she is to form a new government.

Losses for the Coalition Partners

In the bourgeois bloc, in addition to Kristersson's Moderaterna, the smaller coalition partners also lost votes. The Centre Party and the Christian Democrats also had to absorb losses according to preliminary figures. This means the previous governing alliance loses its arithmetic majority in the Riksdag.

Election researchers see several factors at work in the result. High inflation, rising energy prices, and dissatisfaction with the migration policy of the right-wing populist-backed government had turned sentiment against Kristersson. In addition, an above-average voter turnout mobilized younger voters in particular.

Implications for Europe

International observers interpret the election outcome as a signal for the European mainstream. After the right-wing populists' election victory in 2022, Sweden was considered one of the countries in which right-wing populist parties carried a governmental majority. With the change, the country is moving closer again to the political center of Europe.

Observers now expect negotiations over a possible minority government or a red-red-green alliance. The Left Party, which despite losses managed to secure entry into the Riksdag, has already signaled its willingness to talk. According to her own words, Andersson wants to quickly present a viable government.

Outlook on Government Formation

The preliminary final result has not yet been officially confirmed. Should the trend solidify, Andersson would be commissioned by the Riksdag to form a government. The constitution of the new Riksdag is scheduled for early October.

The campaign was shaped by an unusually fierce dispute over issues such as crime, integration, and energy policy. The two camps accused each other of neglecting security in the country and of endangering social stability, respectively. The outcome of the election suggests that these issues ultimately cost the voters' re-election of the previous coalition.