Berlin, October 22, 2026
The Tax Estimation Working Group presented its autumn forecast for federal and state revenues in Berlin on October 22, 2026.
The Tax Estimation Working Group has released its autumn forecast. According to the headline of the report, the body expects higher revenues for the federal government and the states.
The Tax Estimation Working Group comprises experts from the federal government and leading economic research institutes. It also includes the Federal Statistical Office, the Bundesbank, the Council of Experts, and representatives of the states and municipalities.
Who produces the forecast
The body brings together assessments from various fields of government administration, economic research and monetary policy. Its composition is intended to provide a broad foundation for the forecast.
The autumn forecast is used to assess future public revenues. The federal government and the states receive the published results as a basis for their own budget planning.
Importance for budget planning
The participation of the Bundesbank is an essential part of the Tax Estimation Working Group’s institutional breadth. Alongside it, experts from the federal government and economic research institutions contribute to the forecast.
The states and municipalities are also involved in the working group. Their assessments therefore feed into the joint review of federal and state revenues.
The exact figures in the autumn forecast and the assumptions underlying them are not specified in the available material. As a result, the confirmed information does not allow a percentage or a specific amount of additional revenues to be derived.
What the information still leaves open
The published forecast is a joint signal from the institutions involved. It describes the expected development but does not replace a short-term budget decision or make any statement about individual measures.
The next assessment of public finances will therefore depend on how actual revenues develop. A reliable evaluation would require further information on the individual revenue sources and forecast assumptions.
The autumn forecast underscores the working group’s role as a central information hub for public budget planning. Its members provide assessments from government administration, research, monetary policy, and the federal and state governments.