Tobacco Tax on Waterpipe Tobacco Set to More Than Triple by 2030

The Federal Association of Waterpipe Tobacco expects significantly rising end prices as a result of the tax increase. Association Managing Director Folke Rega stated: "Künftig würden sich die Preise wohl auf 250 bis 300 Euro pro Kilo in etwa verdoppeln". According to the association, the average retail price is currently around 139 euros per kilogram. A 200-gram tin would accordingly cost around 60 euros in the future, compared with the current 25 to 30 euros.

Warnings from the Industry

Rega described the planned tax increases as disproportionately high. He warned, "Die legale Branche stirbt und der Fiskus geht leer aus." The association fears that domestic production will be discontinued due to the expected drop in sales and that manufacturers would in the future have to bear annual costs of at least a quarter of a million euros solely for financial securities, documentation technology, and compliance with food quality standards.

The background to the debate is a restrictive packaging regulation that was in force from 2022 to 2024. It hit the shisha industry hard and, according to the association, fueled the black market: the Federal Association of Waterpipe Tobacco estimated that 80 percent of the shisha tobacco consumed in Germany came from illegal channels. While the import volume of special charcoal needed for water pipes remained constant, the volume of taxed shisha tobacco collapsed. Only after the legislature overturned the packaging regulation did it partially take the wind out of the black market's sails.

Experiences with the Packaging Regulation 2022–2024

Rega now fears a repetition of this development: "Als Folge der geplanten Steuererhöhungen würde wohl nur noch illegale Importware über das Internet nach Deutschland kommen". The tax authorities' plans for substantial additional tax revenues would "wieder schiefgehen … Stattdessen ist mit einem Verlust der kompletten legalen Steuereinnahmen zu rechnen, profitieren wird die organisierte Kriminalität."

In Germany, an estimated 1.5 million people smoke water pipes. According to the Debra study by Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf from 2023, 1.8 percent of people aged 14 and over are affected. A quarter of the waterpipe tobacco sold in Germany is consumed in around 5,000 shisha bars, according to the association, with the remainder accounting for private use. The association speaks of around 2,500 sales points such as kiosks and petrol stations as well as about 200 wholesalers.

Consumer Structure and Health Risks

Health experts view consumption critically. Cancer researchers emphasize the health dangers of shisha smoking. The widely held assumption that the water in the pipe has a filtering function "ist eine weit verbreitete Legende", as stated in the report.

The Federal Ministry of Finance could, according to dpa's assessment, pass the legislative project quickly. The documents are available to the news agency. Nothing was initially known about the parliamentary deliberations.

No statement from the Federal Ministry of Finance on the industry's warnings was initially available. The association announced that it would continue to advocate for a revision of the plans. The coming months up to the first tax stage in January 2027 are considered crucial within the industry.

The discussion is also relevant from a health policy perspective: According to cancer researchers' expertise, shisha smoke contains similar pollutants to cigarette smoke. Should the tax take effect as planned, Germany would be one of the international pioneers in the taxation of waterpipe tobacco. Observers expect that consumers could either switch to substitute products or increasingly turn to the black market.