Trump-backed Ken Paxton defeats John Cornyn in Texas GOP Senate primary, alarming moderates

The primary is part of the lead-up to the midterm elections in early November, and the outcome in Texas could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. Democrats see an opportunity to flip a seat that has been in Republican hands for more than sixty years.

A controversial figure

Paxton, 63, has served as Texas Attorney General since 2014. He previously served in the Texas House of Representatives and Texas Senate starting in 2002. He studied psychology and law before working as a lawyer, and he and his wife founded a church and have four children together.

As attorney general, Paxton pursued hardline immigration policies, opposed abortion, and opposed LGBTQ rights. He sued the federal government multiple times under Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, including over the Affordable Care Act.

Paxton has also been embroiled in multiple scandals over several years. He faced allegations of securities fraud, bribery, abuse of office, and nepotism. He survived an impeachment proceeding in which numerous fellow Republicans voted against him.

His marriage ended following an extramarital affair that was linked to corruption allegations. A friend and major donor helped Paxton, and in return Paxton provided political and legal assistance to that donor.

Republican fears of a lost seat

Many Republicans are skeptical of Paxton's nomination, fearing his scandals will deter voters in the general election. The moderate Republican wing is concerned about having to spend many millions more dollars due to Paxton's legal entanglements.

Trump has pushed for the removal of Republican incumbents he considered disloyal, including Representative Thomas Massie from Kentucky and Senator Bill Cassidy from Louisiana. Both lost their primaries.

In recent years, the Republican Party lost three Senate seats because Trump backed loyal but controversial candidates. If Democrats gain three Senate seats in the midterms, they would have a majority in the Senate. It is considered highly probable that Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives.

National implications

Without a majority in Congress, Trump's ability to act would be largely constrained. The Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate seat is James Talarico.

Republican incumbents who lose to Trump loyalists remain in Congress until next January. Last week, Senators adjourned early for a one-week recess without completing their business. Some Republican members of Congress considered Trump's endorsement of Paxton in Texas unwise.