Trump-backed Ken Paxton wins Texas GOP Senate primary, ousting incumbent John Cornyn

A Trump Loyalist's Rise

The primary defeat ends Cornyn's long Senate career. Once considered a potential Senate leader, Cornyn becomes the latest establishment Republican to fall to a Trump loyalist, following similar losses by Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana.

Paxton, 63, has served as Texas Attorney General since 2014. He studied psychology and law and worked as a lawyer before entering politics, serving in the Texas House of Representatives and Texas Senate starting in 2002.

As Attorney General, Paxton pursued hardline immigration policies, opposed abortion, and opposed LGBTQ rights. He sued the federal governments of Barack Obama and Joe Biden multiple times, including over the Affordable Care Act.

Scandals and Legal Troubles

Paxton's political career has been shadowed by extensive legal and ethical troubles. He has been indicted on charges of securities fraud and abuse of office, and faced allegations of bribery and nepotism.

He survived an impeachment proceeding in which many of his own party colleagues voted against him. His marriage ended due to an affair that was closely linked to corruption allegations involving a friend and major donor who helped Paxton, with Paxton returning political and legal favors.

The tabloid press covered his divorce and affair extensively. Many Republicans are now skeptical of Paxton's nomination, fearing his scandals will deter voters in the fall general election.

Democratic Hopes and Senate Control

Democrats see an opportunity to flip the Texas Senate seat. Their candidate, James Talarico, will face Paxton in November. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than sixty years.

The outcome of the Texas race could determine control of the U.S. Senate. If Democrats gain three Senate seats in the midterms, they would achieve a majority in the upper chamber. It is already considered highly likely that Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives.

Without a majority in Congress, Donald Trump would be largely constrained in his ability to act. The moderate wing of the Republican Party is concerned about the additional millions of dollars needed to defend Paxton amid his legal entanglements.

Trump's endorsement came at the last moment before the runoff election. Trump-endorsed candidates have prevailed in primaries in other states as well, while well-connected politicians in Texas, Kentucky, and Louisiana lost primaries when they were not perceived as loyal to Trump.

The Republican incumbents who lost to Trump loyalists will remain in Congress until next January. Last week, Senators adjourned early for a one-week recess without completing their business, as some Republican members blocked finance bills because they opposed a planned fund for what they called 'victims of justice under Biden'.