Trump declares ceasefire with Iran over and threatens new attacks

Trump justified the departure from the ceasefire with alleged Iranian violations of the agreement. The Iranian leadership had "im Grunde genommen verletzt" the ceasefire, Rutte also said. In addition, Iran had attacked ships in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in recent days. "Das sind fiese Typen, deshalb haben sie es auf jeden abgesehen, wahrscheinlich auch auf mich", Trump added.

US airstrikes on Iranian targets

On the night of Wednesday, the US military said it had bombed more than 80 targets in Iran. According to a US official speaking to CNN, the targets included air defense systems, ship-defense missiles, and more than 60 Revolutionary Guard boats in or near the Strait of Hormuz. A US official described the attacks as "Bestrafung", while Trump spoke of "sehr heftige" strikes: "Wir haben ihnen gestern Abend sehr hart zugesetzt, sehr hart."

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards then declared that they had in turn attacked 85 targets in US military facilities. These included facilities in the area of the US Fifth Fleet off Bahrain and at the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. A statement from the Revolutionary Guards read: "Jede Fehlkalkulation wird mit einer entschlossenen und noch härteren Antwort als je zuvor beantwortet werden." Bahrain and Kuwait also reported Iranian attacks: Kuwait said it had intercepted two ballistic missiles and 13 drones.

Iranian retaliation and threats

Trump also threatened Tehran with a naval blockade of the oil island of Kharg, through which the bulk of Iranian oil exports are handled. "Wir werden sie heute Nacht hart treffen", he said with a view to possible new attacks. However, he would speak with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about negotiations with Tehran. "Ich werde unseren wunderbaren Unterhändlern erlauben weiterzureden, wenn sie wollen, aber ich sehe es nicht", the US president said.

At the same time, Trump once again expressed his frustration with NATO partners. "Ich bin sehr verärgert über die NATO", he said at the meeting with Rutte. The alliance had not been willing to "uns zu helfen" in the Iran war. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the US and Iranian attacks "verkomplizieren die ohnehin schon heiklen Gespräche zur Beendigung des Krieges zusätzlich".

NATO partners under pressure

French President Emmanuel Macron urged "viel Gelassenheit, Besonnenheit und Geduld" on the sidelines of the NATO summit. In the closing declaration, all NATO members reaffirmed their "unerschütterliches Bekenntnis" to "gemeinsamen Verteidigung gemäß Artikel 5" of the North Atlantic Treaty. Trump had recently threatened Iran again, saying there would either be a deal or the US would "den Job zu Ende bringen".

The background to the current escalation is the fragile ceasefire that was agreed between Washington and Tehran in mid-June. It was meant to enable a 60-day negotiating phase and pave the way for a permanent resolution of the conflict. Representatives from Washington and Tehran had agreed on a framework agreement with 14 points. According to the Iranians' reading, they are entitled to control the strait during the 60-day negotiating period.

Background: The 60-day deadline

Nevertheless, there are indications that the declaration of intent has not yet become entirely a dead letter. The parties remain within the set 60-day deadline for negotiations between the US and Iran. Israeli Iran expert Danny Citrinowicz wrote on X that if Washington prioritized concluding a permanent agreement with Iran, it would have to accept that there is "keine realistische Rückkehr zu dem Status quo" before the start of the war in the Strait of Hormuz.

If, on the other hand, restoring the former status quo was the priority for the US government, it would also have to be clear that the chances of an agreement would "erheblich sinken, während das Risiko einer erneuten Eskalation steigt". The US government would have to decide which goal was more important to it, the expert wrote further. Middle East expert Guido Steinberg sees "Ratlosigkeit" in the US course toward Iran.

The US and Israel had begun the war against Iran on June 28. Since then, there have been repeated attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. At least three tankers were attacked in the strait before the US launched its renewed military strikes. Trump declared the framework agreement with Iran over and announced that he would "hart zu treffen" the country.

When asked whether his statements meant that talks with Iran would not be resumed, Trump said: "Das ist mir egal." He added: "Wenn wir ein Abkommen mit dem Iran schließen, glaube ich nicht, dass es Bestand haben würde. Das sind unehrliche Leute." The US president also said he was not happy about the "sehr schlechte Benehmen" of the leadership in Tehran, calling them "Abschaum".

Impact on population and markets

Trump announced that he would wait to see "wie sich alles entwickelt". A fisherman's family in Bandar Abbas told STANDARD after the attacks: "Wir haben alles Materielle verloren, aber zumindest sind wir beide am Leben." A 43-year-old fisherman complained: "Sollte sich die Sicherheitslage erneut verschlechtern, werden viele Fischer nicht mehr auslaufen können, und ihre Familien verlieren ihre wichtigste Einnahmequelle."

The effects of the escalation are also being felt on financial markets: oil prices rose significantly after the US attacks on Iran. Iranian student Samaneh was not very surprised by the renewed outbreak of hostilities: "Ich habe das Gefühl, dass wir Iraner uns auf einen weiteren Krieg vorbereiten müssen." In this situation, according to observers' assessment, one must assume that all other topics that were to be discussed within 60 days of the start of the ceasefire will "überhaupt keine Rolle spielen".

In Ankara, Trump's embassy statements also caused displeasure among European allies. The US president's remarks are likely to make it difficult for NATO and the Europeans to present the summit as a great success, according to German media reports. Trump himself wrote on X of an "Ära der Schikane und Erpressung" that was now over. The US and Iran are thus heading toward further escalation, with no new date for talks known.