Trump estimates Iran's remaining missiles at around 21 to 22 percent

The President's estimate deviates significantly from reports by major US media outlets. In mid-May, The New York Times, citing American intelligence findings, reported that Iran still possessed about 70 percent of its mobile launch pads and around 70 percent of its missile arsenal. The Washington Post, according to its own reporting, reached similar figures. Trump himself had stated in May that only 18 percent of Iran's missiles remained.

Divergent Figures from US Media

It remains unclear on what basis Trump's current estimate is founded. Both the underlying data and the assessment by US intelligence services are open questions. A high-ranking US military official described the circulating figures on Iran's missile arsenal as incorrect during a hearing in the US Congress, without providing their own figures. Thus, the exact size of Iran's remaining arsenal remains unclarified.

The war between Iran and the US and Israel began on February 28th with American-Israeli attacks on Iranian territory. Since then, the US and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian military facilities, according to their own statements. A ceasefire has been in place in the conflict for nearly two months, but its continuation is uncertain.

Background of the Conflict

Trump had previously repeatedly claimed that Iran's war-fighting capability had been completely destroyed. His latest statements significantly relativize this assessment. By stating that Iran has "some missiles" and "some drones," the US President admits that the country still possesses considerable military capabilities.

The discrepancy between the White House's statements and the reports from The New York Times and The Washington Post raises questions about the US government's information policy. Both newspapers cited findings from American intelligence services, while Trump did not name a specific source for his estimate. The tensions between official government statements and independent media reports are of particular importance in the region, as they can influence the assessment of the military situation by allies and regional actors.

Unclear Data Situation and Ceasefire

According to statements from Washington and Tehran, the ceasefire in the conflict, which has been ongoing since February, has held for nearly two months. Both sides have not yet publicly commented on a possible end to hostilities or negotiations for a permanent agreement. Observers interpret the discrepancy in arsenal figures as an indication that there is no unified assessment of Iran's armament capabilities within the US government.

Looking ahead to the coming weeks, it remains to be seen whether the US government will clarify its estimate or supplement it with intelligence findings. The question of whether the ceasefire will hold in light of Iran's continued capabilities is also considered open. Trump recently announced that developments in Iran would be closely monitored.