Trump orders accelerated development of quantum computers

„Zielmarke dafür sei das Jahr 2028, verkündete der im Weißen Haus für Wissenschafts- und Technologiepolitik zuständige Trump-Vertraute Michael Kratsios." Linked to this is the mandate for several federal agencies, including the space agency NASA, to develop five-year plans for the concrete deployment of quantum technology. „Es heißt dort, dass mehrere US-Behörden - darunter die Weltraumagentur Nasa - Fünfjahrespläne für den Einsatz von Quantentechnologie ausarbeiten sollen."

Background: What quantum computers are supposed to achieve

The background is the expectation that quantum computers could outperform today's machines many times over for certain tasks. „Quantencomputer sollen um ein Vielfaches leistungsstärker als heutige Rechner werden und den Weg zu neuen wissenschaftliche Durchbrüchen ebnen - so zumindest die Hoffnung." Practically usable machines, however, do not yet exist. „Bisher sind leistungsstarke Quantencomputer noch in der Entwicklung."

As one of the leading players in the field, Google hopes to build practical quantum computers by the end of the decade. Google, together with other corporations from Silicon Valley, is among the drivers of the technology, which has been tied to high expectations as well as massive investments for years. The market for the underlying hardware is considered strategically sensitive, because it could help determine future competitive advantages in science, industry, and the military.

Security risks and new encryption

At the same time, the technology carries risks that are explicitly addressed in the decree. Quantum computers could be capable of breaking many of the encryption methods considered secure today. „Tech-Konzerne wie Apple und Google führen deswegen schon seit Jahren neue Verschlüsselungstechniken ein, die der potenziellen Gefahr durch Quantencomputer standhalten sollen." Apple and Google are therefore already preparing their products and cloud services for an era in which classical cryptography may no longer be sufficient.

Trump also ordered additional safeguarding of US infrastructure against attacks aided by quantum technology. „Dabei sollen unter anderem Energieversorger und Wasserbetreiber mit Vorrang geschützt werden." The government is thus responding to concerns that state or private attackers could in the future use quantum-based tools to compromise critical networks. The directive thus links the build-up and the protection of the new technology in a single decree.

The order comes at a time when Washington is intensifying technological competition with China, also using industrial-policy tools. Observers interpret the decree as a signal that quantum computing is to be treated similarly to semiconductors and artificial intelligence in the past: as a national priority with its own funding architecture. US intelligence agencies have also warned for some time about risks from quantum-capable encryption breakers.

Market reaction

Stock markets reacted immediately after the decree became known. Shares of quantum computer manufacturer D-Wave rose 7.27 percent to $26.25 in after-hours trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Rigetti Computing gained 4.35 percent to $22.31 on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The swings show that investors view the decree as a positive signal for the industry.

No date was named in the decree itself by which the Department of Energy is to have an operational quantum computer. The year 2028 was only made public through the White House press conference. Experts point out that a research computer of this performance class does not yet exist anywhere in the world.

Industrial policy and international competition

Industry observers see the order less as a technological turning point and more as a political milestone. The US government is thereby committing to treat quantum technology similarly to other key technologies: with dedicated budgets, clear responsibilities, and an interdepartmental strategy. Whether the 2028 deadline can actually be met depends, among other things, on supply chains for specialized components.

The funding is also likely to affect suppliers and start-ups in the US working on cryogenics, error correction, and novel chip architectures. Components from companies such as Nvidia are considered relevant for control electronics of classical systems coupled with quantum computers. Classical cloud providers with their own quantum initiatives also see themselves strengthened by the decree.

Data protection authorities worldwide are watching developments with mixed feelings. On the one hand, quantum-resistant encryption methods could in the long term increase the security of citizens' data. On the other, experts warn that intelligence agencies may already be collecting encrypted data today in order to decrypt it later with quantum computers. Such "harvest now, decrypt later" scenarios are considered a serious risk.

Impact on Europe and Germany

The European Union currently has its own funding program for quantum technology, which aims to channel billions into research and pilot facilities over the coming years. The US order is likely to further fuel the debate in Brussels and Berlin about an industrial strategy of their own. Germany's banking sector, which has prepared early for quantum-resistant cryptography, also sees its investments confirmed by the decree.

Critics complain that the decree mostly bundles announcements without specifying concrete budget funds. As long as no binding funds are approved by Congress, it remains unclear to what extent the goals can actually be implemented. Supporters counter that even the bundling of responsibilities and the clear timeline carry an important signaling effect.

Criticism and open questions

The next steps are expected to become visible in the coming months. The responsible agencies must submit their five-year plans, first procurement procedures for quantum hardware are expected, and the cybersecurity agencies will review which existing systems must be converted to quantum-resistant procedures first. Until then, the decree remains above all a political framework that sets the pace—and increases the pressure on other technology nations.

Beyond the political level, scientists emphasize that quantum computers will not replace classical computers but will complement them. For tasks such as materials simulation, optimization problems, or certain AI procedures, they are considered promising, while everyday applications are likely to continue to run on classical hardware. The decree thus focuses on those fields in which the technological leap could be greatest.