Ukraine rejects Russian conquest claim: Fighting in Kostiantynivka continues

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky used the occasion for a direct diplomatic initiative. "Wenn Kostjantyniwka derzeit unter russischer Kontrolle stünde, hätte Putin wohl kein Problem damit, sich dort mit mir zu treffen und diplomatische Lösungen zu finden, um den Krieg endlich beenden zu können", Zelensky said. The statement was made during a phone call with Chancellor Friedrich Merz. A visit to Moscow, which Peskov had raised, was categorically rejected by Zelensky.

Zelensky's diplomatic initiative and Moscow's response

Putin rejected Zelensky's assessment as an "Informationskampagne" aimed at showcasing alleged successes by the Kyiv leadership. According to the state agency TASS, Peskov had also stated that Zelensky could come to Moscow if he was prepared for responsible decisions, and added: "Schließlich ist Moskau die Hauptstadt der Russischen Föderation und nicht Konstjantyniwka".

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) saw no evidence for a full capture of Kostiantynivka. According to the institute's assessment, the Russian presence in the city consists primarily of small assault groups between Ukrainian positions. Russian military bloggers and the Ukrainian military analysis blog DeepState have also so far recorded only parts of the city as Russian-occupied.

Assessments of Western military analysts

ISW interpreted Putin's victory announcement as an attempt to generate media attention – deliberately timed shortly before the weekend's celebrations for the United States' 250th Independence Day. The institute assessed the address as targeted at Western coverage and Western audiences. Zelensky also accused Putin of a deliberately timed lie intended also for US President Donald Trump.

Putin's appearance and threat message

Putin had appeared the previous evening in military uniform for the first time in a long while and spoke during his appearance of an expansion of so-called security zones. "Je mehr Angriffe die Ukraine auf zivile russische Einrichtungen versucht, desto größer muss die Sicherheitszone im angrenzenden Gebiet werden", Putin said. He also stated: "Wir alle wissen, dass diese Stadt ein wichtiges Verkehrszentrum und ein großes Industriezentrum des Donbass ist".

Military significance and possible consequences

According to analysts, the background to the Russian offensive is the strategic goal of bringing the entire Donbas region under Russian control. A capture of Kostiantynivka would provide Russian forces with a bridgehead for further advances northward. If the city fell, only the larger cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka in Donetsk Oblast would remain under Ukrainian control.

However, according to analysts, a further advance would likely be lengthy and costly and reminiscent of the sieges of other eastern Ukrainian cities such as Pokrovsk and Avdiivka. Zelensky had recently stated that the Russian advance in the east had slowed significantly since the beginning of the year.

The humanitarian impact in Kostiantynivka is severe. Before the war, between 67,000 and 78,000 people lived there according to various figures; the population has since shrunk to around 2,000. The city is one of four cornerstones of the Ukrainian defense line in the heavily industrialized Donetsk region and is considered an important stronghold on the way to the last larger cities in the Donbas.

In addition to the fighting in Kostiantynivka itself, the Ukrainian General Staff also reported clashes in villages closer to Russian positions – such as in Ivanopillia. Tanks were explicitly mentioned, with Ukrainian units continuing their defense along the assigned lines. Independent on-site evidence for the Russian claim is not yet available.

In the background is an ongoing conflict over the Russian oil industry. According to a report by commander Yevheni Nikiforov, attempts to fully stop Ukrainian drone strikes on the Russian oil industry have so far been unsuccessful. According to reports, these strikes have caused a fuel crisis in Russia that has generated significant public dissatisfaction – an additional domestic political pressure factor for the Kremlin.

Background: Drone strikes and Russian energy crisis

Putin explicitly justified the need to expand the security zones with the intensified Ukrainian long-range strikes, which were directed in particular against the Russian oil industry. This linkage connected the victory announcement with a threat message to Kyiv: further attacks would serve as a pretext for a geographic expansion of the conflict.

Historically, the patterns of Russian conquest claims repeat themselves: In December 2025, Russia had announced the capture of Kupiansk. Zelensky had subsequently traveled to the outskirts of the city and recorded a video there showing an apparently undisturbed presence. The Russian claim had also proven premature at that time.

ISW and Western observers assessed the current timing of the Russian success announcement as deliberately chosen. According to this reading, the news was meant to generate international attention before the American weekend celebrations. This reading supports Zelensky's accusation that Putin wants to use the alleged capture to convince Trump of the inevitability of a Russian victory.

The claims could not be independently verified at the time of reporting. While the Russian leadership announced complete success, the Ukrainian General Staff, ISW, and independent military analysts continued to speak of ongoing fighting and only partial Russian presence.

The Kremlin promptly rejected Zelensky's offer to meet in Kostiantynivka. According to the Kremlin, Putin stated that he was prepared to receive Zelensky in Moscow. At the same time, however, Peskov said that Zelensky would not cross the front line. Thus, the offer of a direct meeting between the two presidents remained unanswered for the time being – a diplomatic solution to the conflict did not come any closer over the weekend.