US stock markets surge: Trump cancels Iran strikes and SpaceX celebrates IPO

The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial rose 1.86 percent to 50,848.75 points, while the Nasdaq gained 2.5 percent to 25,809 points. The indices thus continued the positive momentum of recent days. Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI had already attributed the upbeat mood to the "Angst vieler Anleger am Vorabend des Börsengangs von SpaceX, künftige Kursgewinne zu verpassen."

SpaceX celebrates the largest IPO in history

At the center of investor interest was the IPO of SpaceX, Elon Musk's space company. The offering price was set at 135 US dollars per share, which would yield a staggering total valuation of almost 1.8 trillion dollars. Musk aims to raise around 75 billion US dollars by selling a five-percent stake in his space, satellite and AI company; the original target was even higher, with proceeds of up to 86 billion US dollars, which would make the listing the largest IPO in history.

Demand for the shares was already enormous on the eve of the listing, according to Bloomberg: Citing informed sources, the news agency reported that demand for the shares was more than four times the supply. Trading on the New York Stock Exchange was scheduled to begin at 3:30 p.m. CET, or 9:30 a.m. New York time. The IPO comes almost a quarter of a century after the company was founded; according to information from the offering documents, SpaceX is still in the red at the time of publication.

Trump justified his political about-face on his online platform Truth Social by citing ongoing talks that had reached the highest level of Iranian leadership. According to his account, negotiations on pacifying the conflict are close to a breakthrough. "Gespräche und endgültige Punkte seien im Detail von allen beteiligten Parteien gebilligt worden," agencies quoted the president as saying. Trump even signaled that an agreement could be signed – the time and place would be announced shortly, possibly in Europe over the weekend.

Tehran tempers the euphoria

The Iranian government in Tehran, however, stated that no final decision on a peace agreement had been made yet. The fact that Tehran denied progress in negotiations, according to a media report, only briefly dampened the euphoria in the markets. Ray Attrill, currency strategist at National Australia Bank, also struck a cautiously optimistic note: "Wenn wir etwas aus dem Iran hören, das positiv klingt, werden sich die Chancen eindeutig dramatisch wenden." At the same time, he pointed out: "Dies sieht vielleicht etwas greifbarer aus als das, was wir bisher hatten."

Oil prices fall sharply

The prospect of de-escalation in the Middle East had an immediate impact on the oil market. Oil prices dropped sharply: a barrel of North Sea Brent fell 1.2 percent to 89.32 US dollars, while US WTI declined 1.1 percent to 86.76 US dollars. The previous day, Trump's threats against Iran as well as further profit-taking in the semiconductor sector had pushed prices down significantly.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast for 2027 to 80 US dollars per barrel. Reasons cited included rising supply and weaker demand as a result of China's shift to electric vehicles. This assessment supports hopes for longer-term relief in the crude oil market.

Asia and Europe follow suit

Asian markets also reacted positively to the news environment. Japan's Nikkei rose by around four percent, South Korea's Kospi gained more than eight percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.3 percent. China's CSI300 blue-chip index added one percent.

In Europe, the DAX had already closed slightly in positive territory at 24,209 points on Thursday, despite the European Central Bank raising key interest rates. For Friday, the DAX was expected to gain more than 1.5 percent. Investors are betting that a diplomatic solution in the Middle East conflict would ease the global economy.

Mixed picture in the technology sector

In the semiconductor sector, which had recently suffered from profit-taking, Thursday saw a strong upward move. In the Nasdaq 100, KLA (KLA-Tencor), Lam Research and Micron (Micron Technology) took the top spots with price gains of up to 12.9 percent. Intel also benefited, gaining 9.3 percent, helped by the Bank of America reversing course on its assessment of the stock and recommending a buy. Analyst Vivek Arya is now more optimistic about the California-based company's prospects in processors and contract manufacturing.

The day was different for Oracle: with a price slide of 8.5 percent, the stock accelerated its slide of recent days. The experts at analysis service Vital Knowledge acknowledged that Oracle had a decent quarter, but they criticized persistently high cash outflows for the build-up of capacity for the growing order book. Shares of industry peers Adobe, Salesforce and Microsoft fell by up to 6.3 percent. Adobe itself will release its figures for the past quarter after the US market close.

Outlook: How sustainable is the recovery?

Thursday's broad market recovery reflected a rare combination of political de-escalation, technological euphoria and economic optimism. Should a peace agreement in the Middle East actually be signed, many observers believe this would further reduce market volatility and support rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and infrastructure in particular.

However, it remains to be seen how solid the Iranian signals actually are. The Iranian government stressed that it had not yet made a final decision. A disappointing development in the talks could quickly wipe out the gains. The outcome of the SpaceX IPO on its first trading day will also show whether the company's lofty valuation of around 1.8 trillion US dollars holds up in the market.