US Weather Agency NOAA Confirms: El Niño Has Begun – Very Strong Event Possible

High Probability of a Very Strong Event

NOAA estimates the probability that the current El Niño will develop into a "very strong" event at 63 percent. "Es bestehe nun 'eine 63-prozentige Chance für einen sehr starken El Nino von November bis Jänner' und damit für eine deutliche Zunahme von Extremwetterereignissen", the agency said. Should this forecast come true, it would be one of the strongest El Niños since records began in 1950.

In the naturally occurring weather phenomenon El Niño, the water surface in the eastern and central Pacific near the equator warms, which has worldwide effects on wind, air pressure, and precipitation. According to NOAA, El Niño events occur every two to seven years, typically last nine to twelve months, and peak between November and February.

Comparison with 2023/24

The previous El Niño in the 2023/24 period was among the five strongest since records began. It contributed to 2024 being the hottest year since industrialization (1850–1900), measured by global average temperature. At that time, the interval between the El Niño events of 2015/16 and 2023/24 was seven years; now, roughly two years have passed since the last event.

WMO: More Energy for Extreme Weather

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) pointed out that El Niño can amplify the effects of climate change. "Bei einem El Niño sind der tropische Pazifische Ozean und die Atmosphäre wärmer, und dies kann mehr Energie und Feuchtigkeit für extreme Wetterereignisse wie Hitzewellen und Starkregen bedeuten, so die WMO." At the same time, the WMO stated that there is currently no scientific evidence that climate change itself makes El Niño events stronger.

Limited Direct Effects in Europe

According to the expert agencies' assessment, the direct effects on Europe are limited. The strongest effects of the phenomenon are seen primarily in regions of the Southern Hemisphere, where droughts and floods can occur with greater frequency. According to NOAA, the precise regional consequences of the current event will be refined in the coming monthly reports.

With the official confirmation by NOAA, the international weather community is beginning more detailed forecasts for the coming winter season in the Northern Hemisphere. Should the El Niño continue to strengthen as expected, meteorologists worldwide are anticipating an increase in extreme weather events, the exact nature of which can only be estimated in the coming weeks and months.