WMO warns of new El Niño episode: Global temperatures could break records in 2027

UN Secretary-General António Guterres responded to the warning with a video message. El Niño conditions are pouring oil on the fire of global warming, he said. "The consequences will be even more severe and spread even further," Guterres warned. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo also spoke of a serious situation: "We must prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event that will exacerbate droughts and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean."

How El Niño forms and works

El Niño refers to the warm phase of a natural climate cycle in the tropical Pacific, which repeats every two to seven years. Normally, trade winds drive warm surface water from the South American coast towards Indonesia and Australia. During an El Niño, these winds weaken significantly or reverse, causing warm water to spread eastward and suppressing the upwelling of cold deep water off South America. The currently measured temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific is between plus 1 and plus 3.5 degrees Celsius, according to WMO data.

The consequences are felt worldwide. Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall increase off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, rivers overflow their banks, landslides occur, and entire regions are flooded. On the other side of the Pacific, Indonesia, Australia, and parts of Southeast Asia suffer from drought, hardened soils, crop failures, and forest fires. Strong El Niño phases regularly cause billions of dollars in damage, according to expert assessments.

Looking back: The El Niño of 2023/24

The last El Niño event occurred in 2023/24 and, according to WMO data, was among the five strongest since records began in 1950. It contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year since industrialization to date – measured by global average temperature. The record at the time was around 1.55 degrees above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, even overshadowing the average temperatures of the past 100,000 years.

Is a Super El Niño looming?

Experts currently see the possibility of a so-called Super El Niño, where the sea temperature is more than two degrees above the usual average. Such an event last occurred in 2015/16, coinciding with the Paris climate conference. At that time, the Great Barrier Reef experienced the worst coral bleaching ever documented, according to James Cook University. In that year, the global average temperature was about 0.2 degrees higher than the average in El Niño years, according to estimates by the UK's Met Office.

WMO chief Saulo also emphasized that El Niño does not necessarily have to lead to a catastrophe. It is crucial to use seasonal forecasts and early warnings promptly to save lives and mitigate economic consequences. It is now particularly important to establish and improve early warning systems everywhere "before a danger escalates into a crisis." Meteorologists expect the strongest direct impacts in the Southern Hemisphere; Europe will largely remain on the periphery of the shifts but could be indirectly affected.

Voices from research

Klaus Haslinger, head of the Climate System and Climate Impacts department at GeoSphere Austria, explained: "It is quite certain that we will find 'El Niño' conditions in the tropical Pacific in the coming months. There are already signals, and this will continue to build in the coming months." However, El Niño will only become truly noticeable from summer onwards and into autumn. Haslinger also recalled 2017, when a clear El Niño signal was predicted, but it collapsed in the summer and turned into a La Niña event.

For Central Europe, climate researcher Mojib Latif from the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel estimates the probability of significantly noticeable consequences at about 50/50. "It may happen, but it may not," he said. Direct impacts are rare because Europe is geographically far from the tropical Pacific, and the signal is disrupted on its way by many other atmospheric and oceanic influences. If anything, cooler and wetter weather than usual is more likely.

Impacts on Europe

However, indirect effects are also possible in Europe, according to emeritus physicist Armin Bunde from the University of Giessen. "For example, poor harvests in the Pacific region can lead to higher prices for sugar, coffee, and cocoa," he said. Since El Niño-related weather extremes lead to crop failures in some regions, such shortages affect world market prices.

The WMO also pointed out that El Niño is a natural phenomenon that stands in direct contrast to man-made climate change. According to WMO experts, there is no direct link between the occurrence of El Niño and climate change – however, global warming can intensify the weather extremes associated with El Niño. According to a common explanation, the name goes back to Peruvian fishermen who often noticed the warming at the end of the year and called it "the Christ child."

The rapid succession is striking: only two years have passed since the last event in 2023/24, whereas the interval to the previous El Niño in 2015/16 was seven years. Satellite data show rising sea levels – a consequence of expanding warm water – and oceans have reached an average of over 21 degrees Celsius in recent months. According to WMO data, they absorb more than 90 percent of the excess heat in the climate system.

Paris climate goal under pressure

WMO experts estimate the probability that one of the years between 2026 and 2030 will have an even higher global average temperature than 2024 at 86 percent. Due to El Niño, this could happen as early as 2027. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries set the goal of limiting man-made temperature increase to as close as possible to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

The WMO announced a press conference for Tuesday to inform the media about the necessary preparations for the El Niño event. Above-average temperatures are also expected for most of the world during June to August. However, according to scientists, experts do not agree on how rising sea temperatures influence the frequency and strength of El Niño events.

El Niño and La Niña phases alternate, with neutral conditions in between. Saulo referred to the current WMO report and emphasized that an update is important, "as El Niño has a significant impact on global weather and climate patterns." Whether the upcoming event will actually reach the strength of a Super El Niño is currently still open.

The WMO published the information in its quarterly El Niño/La Niña Update. The news was broadcast on June 3, 2026, on programs including Deutschlandfunk. When exactly the current event will reach its peak is still unclear – it usually falls between December and February, so the world would likely only have to expect its full force in the winter of 2026/27.