AMA Expects 14 Percent Smaller Grain Harvest in Austria in 2026

Supply of Bread and Flour Secured

The AMA forecasts show the largest losses for fall crops. While winter barley, as an early crop, still delivered comparatively stable yields, later-ripening varieties are suffering from the ongoing drought. Grain quality can also suffer from a lack of water, which affects the share of marketable product.

The drought in Austria is not an isolated phenomenon, but part of a longer-term development featuring regional heatwaves and unevenly distributed rainfall. Farmers have been reporting for months about dried-out soils and rising irrigation costs. The AMA draws on data from across Austria for its estimate and updates its balance sheet during the harvest season.

For farmers, the lower volume also means financial losses, because harvest quantities are directly linked to revenues. At the same time, world market grain prices tend to rise when major producing countries struggle with extreme weather. How domestic producer prices develop therefore also depends on the international market situation.

Impact on Farmers and Consumers

The authority stresses that domestic supply of bread grain from existing stocks and ongoing imports is expected to remain secure. Shortages of flour and baked goods in supermarkets are therefore not to be expected. Nevertheless, the AMA continues to monitor the harvest progress and intends to tighten its assessment if needed.

If the weather improves in the coming weeks, later crops such as grain maize could still make up some of the shortfall. Cool nights and heavy rainfall would be needed for that. The AMA announced that it would update its forecast again in September.

Consumers are unlikely to feel the smaller harvest directly in their wallets, according to the AMA, because bread and flour in Austria are mainly produced from domestic grain and stocks are sufficient. Industry representatives are nonetheless closely watching developments on the world market, since Austria also relies on imports at peak times.

Climate Change as the Backdrop

The debate over the consequences of climate change for agriculture is receiving new impetus from the current forecast. Farmers' representatives are calling for more support for irrigation systems and insurance against crop failures. Adjustments to variety selection and soil cultivation are also seen as possible responses to more frequent drought periods.

For the coming weeks, the AMA expects initial solid figures on the harvest actually brought in once combine harvesters have finished in the late-ripening regions. Until then, the forecast remains subject to the usual uncertainties.

Neighboring EU countries are also reporting in some cases significantly reduced grain harvests, which is putting the European market as a whole under pressure. A weaker EU harvest can lead to stronger demand for exporters from other world regions. This in turn affects price formation on the world market.