Climate change made wildfires in Spain 20 times more likely, study finds

Methodology of attribution research

The authors explicitly describe their probability calculations as cautious. „Dabei handelt es sich nach Angaben der Forscher sogar noch um konservative Schätzungen“, heißt es in der Mitteilung. In reality, the true factors are likely to be even higher.

Among those involved in the studies was Friederike Otto, co-founder of the World Weather Attribution initiative. The international network of climate scientists has for years been evaluating extreme weather events with regard to the influence of global warming and publishes the results within a few days.

Methodologically, the researchers compare the current climate with a hypothetical scenario without industrial greenhouse gas emissions. This shows how strongly a particular extreme weather event has been influenced or amplified by climate change. For wildfires, temperature, humidity, wind and the dryness of vegetation are fed into the models.

Consequences for Southern Europe

The WWA analyses are part of a series of similar evaluations of heat waves, heavy rainfall and droughts that have been carried out worldwide in recent years. The teams have repeatedly come to the conclusion that certain extremes would either not have occurred at all or only with significantly less intensity without human-made climate change.

The fires in Spain and France are exemplary of a broader development in Southern Europe: According to the studies, the number of days with a high wildfire risk in the region has increased significantly over the past eight years. Fire seasons that used to be considered unusual are increasingly becoming the new normal.

Adaptation and climate protection

The researchers point out that, in addition to climate protection, better adaptation to the changed conditions is also necessary. These include improved early warning, more consistent management of vegetation and forests, and the protection of villages in at-risk regions.

According to the WWA, Spain and France are just two examples of a global pattern. Analyses have also demonstrated a clear influence of global warming on the frequency and intensity of wildfires in other Mediterranean countries, in North America and in Australia.