Record Fires in France and Spain: Study Expects Tens of Thousands of Additional Deaths from Smoke

At the same time, multiple wildfires have also broken out in Portugal. The regions around Braga and Bragança in the north as well as around Santarém in the center of the country are affected. The wildfire season in southwestern Europe has therefore not yet reached its peak: it usually really gets going in August. Weather agencies and research institutes are monitoring the situation with great concern.

Climate Change as a Fire Accelerator

A new analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) points out that an extreme ground drought like this year's in Western Europe is roughly five times more likely than it would be without human-caused global warming. Climate change and the associated global warming increase the risk factors for wildfires of this magnitude, according to an analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA). Currently, the Earth is at a global warming level of about 1.4 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era.

Theo Keeping, a colleague at WWA, also warned of the health consequences: "From a scientific perspective, tens of thousands of additional deaths due to smoke exposure are to be expected." According to the Federal Environment Agency, the main health hazard from fires comes from high particulate matter exposure. People with pre-existing respiratory and cardiovascular conditions are particularly at risk.

"Fire-Breathing Dragon" over France

Particularly alarming is the formation of so-called pyrocumulonimbus clouds above the fire in France – a phenomenon observed there for the first time ever. NASA also refers to the phenomenon as a "fire-breathing dragon." It is a fire-generated storm that produces a glowing hot cloud with its own weather system. The cloud, also known as cumulonimbus flammagenitus, often rises several kilometers high into the stratosphere. There, the mixture encounters cooler air masses and generates its own weather system with strong winds that further fuel the fire.

Eric Brocardi, spokesperson for the French fire service, told the AFP news agency: "Löschen oder unter Kontrolle bringen lässt sich der Feuersturm meistens nicht, unter anderem, weil die Winde ständig die Richtung wechseln." The consequence is that it spreads in all directions and forms multiple fire fronts, making the situation completely unpredictable. According to the fire service spokesperson, only two things can help in the case of a "fire cloud": there would need to be heavy rain, ideally over several days. Or the fire must be directed to a place where it goes out on its own, such as the sea.

Risk for Central Europe

In Germany as well, the risk of forest fires is rising, according to a study published via the European Geosciences Union (EGU) that focuses specifically on the catchment areas of the Danube, Main, and Elbe rivers. According to the study, the forest fire risk increases significantly across all areas over the course of the century – but especially in the Main catchment area and in the eastern Bavarian uplands. There, a high forest fire risk will become the norm by the end of the century. On June 28, according to measurements by the German Weather Service, a record temperature of 41.7 degrees Celsius was recorded in Germany for the first time since the beginning of weather records.

As climate scientist Julia Miller of the Swiss WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF explains, after wet winters there were ideal growing conditions for plants in southwestern Europe. The two subsequent heat waves then dried out the vegetation, which is why fires can spread quickly and intensely once an ignition source appears. "Selbst wenn es jetzt mal kurz regne, würden Boden und Pflanzen nur oberflächlich angefeuchtet," so Miller. Every additional heat wave makes the situation worse. Miller demands: "müssen wir auf jeden Fall auch stärker auf Waldbrandmanagement und Landmanagement setzen."

Scrub Encroachment and Lack of Forest Management

Another cause of the spread of the fires is rural depopulation. Because many people move to the cities and villages are left empty, agricultural land is abandoned and pastures are no longer grazed. This increases scrub encroachment on the land, which becomes an additional risk factor in the event of fire. "Das Hauptproblem ist, dass wir den Wald nicht mehr pflegen," forestry expert Paco Castañares also warned in the newspaper El Español.

In December, a study was published in the journal "Communications Earth and Environment" projecting that due to climate change, "wärmere und trockenere Klimazonen voraussichtlich in Richtung der nördlichen europäischen Breiten ausdehnen." This intensifies fire conditions and increases the amount of dry fuel, thereby raising the risk of major wildfires at these latitudes as well. Mariam Zachariah of World Weather Attribution added: "Sollten die globalen Emissionen die Temperaturen wie prognostiziert auf 2,8 Grad Celsius ansteigen lassen, könnten diese intensiven Verdunstungsbedingungen doppelt so wahrscheinlich werden und Dürren wie diese zu einem regelmäßigen Ereignis machen."

Demands on Politics and Society

The science network EASAC, an association of the EU's national academies, called last year for a changed approach to firefighting. It is important not only to fight the fires but also to avoid conditions that favor the uncontrolled spread of fires. Improved landscape planning can help. Experts agree that, in addition to climate protection, adaptation in the management of forests and landscapes is urgently needed.