Wildfires in Europe: PIK Study Warns of Tripling

Hotspots in Europe

According to the study, the situation could also significantly worsen in Germany and France. Both countries are among those regions that have so far been considered less prone to fires, but could be increasingly affected by rising temperatures and longer dry periods.

In scenarios with lower emissions and a limitation of global warming, the increase in burned area is significantly smaller. The study thus confirms the effectiveness of consistent climate policy as a central protective measure for forests and populations.

Forests and Agriculture as Factors

Alongside Billing, Thomas Hickler from PIK and Harald Vacik from BOKU are among the authors of the study. Both institutes emphasize that the results are consistent across multiple model runs and can therefore be considered robust.

The researchers point out that the future development of forests itself has a major influence on fire risk. Where forests become denser and more biomass is present, dry conditions increase the likelihood of major fires. Conversely, targeted afforestation, diversification of tree species, and close-to-nature forest management could reduce parts of the risk.

Agriculture also plays a role in the models. Fires on agricultural land, as well as the abandonment of large-scale monocultures and the protection of forests as wind and water reservoirs, could slow the spread of fires.

Implications for Climate Protection

The study appears against the backdrop of a series of blazes that have repeatedly hit southern Europe in recent summers. The authors see their results as a plea for a determined reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to safeguard habitability and the forest stock on the continent in the long term.

Billing and his colleagues simultaneously emphasize that adaptation to climate change cannot wait. Municipalities must prepare for longer fire periods, wildfire fighting in previously less affected regions must be strengthened, and early warning systems must be expanded.

Overall, in the researchers' assessment, the study provides a nuanced picture: the projected increase depends heavily on how quickly global climate policy reduces emissions and on how successfully Europe's forests can be restructured to become climate-resilient.