Climate researcher Huppmann: Current record heat in Europe is not comparable to earlier heatwaves, according to analysis

The assessment is part of an ongoing scientific evaluation of the heatwave, which has produced new monthly and all-time record temperatures in several European countries. The climate researcher emphasized that such peak values would not be expected with this frequency and intensity without human-made climate change.

What the WWA analysis shows

At the Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, climate data is analyzed and modeled to make statements about past and possible future developments. Huppmann is one of the scientists who make such comparisons between current weather conditions and historical reference periods.

The analysis is part of a series of international studies that quantify the influence of global warming on individual heatwaves. Such so-called attribution studies compare observed temperatures with simulated values in a world without additional greenhouse gas emissions.

For the affected population, the values mean an increased health risk according to expert assessments, particularly for elderly people and individuals with pre-existing conditions. Huppmann also pointed out that such extreme events could occur more frequently in the future if global emissions are not significantly reduced.

Health risks and precautions

The WWA pools data from numerous European weather services and makes it available for scientific evaluation. On this basis, the comparisons cited in the APA report with the 1976 heatwave are also produced, which serves as a reference for a warmer normal period.

The scientist also commented on the handling of the data in public debate. He cautioned against overinterpreting individual events, but at the same time emphasized that the statistics clearly point in one direction: the frequency of new records is noticeably increasing.

Placement in international research

In view of the ongoing heatwave, authorities in several European countries again called for precautionary measures. These include sufficient fluid intake, staying in cooler rooms, and reducing physical exertion during the midday hours.

The assessment from Laxenburg is consistent with previous findings from international research groups, which uniformly describe the anthropogenic share in heatwaves in Europe as significant. Huppmann placed the current values in this context.

Finally, the researcher emphasized that further analyses are necessary to more precisely quantify regional differences. However, the preliminary results already show that the current weather situation cannot be statistically classified as an ordinary outlier of an unchanged climate period.