Study: Current heatwave in Europe practically impossible without climate change

Warmer nights as a clear warning sign

Particularly striking, according to the study, are the warm nights. The likelihood of such high nighttime temperatures has roughly increased a hundredfold in today's climate compared to 2003 – a year in which Europe also experienced a severe heatwave. Without human-caused climate change, calculations show the current heatwave would have been about 3.5 degrees less hot on average.

The scientists see a familiar pattern in their results: extreme weather is increasing, the causes are known, the solutions are known as well – only swift implementation is lacking. A statement reads: "Yes, this is climate change, yes, we are responsible for it, no, it is not due to El Niño, yes, we have the solutions, no, we are not implementing them quickly enough." The natural climate cycle El Niño cannot explain the extreme values, according to the researchers.

Familiar patterns and missing implementation

Friederike Otto from World Weather Attribution pointed to the recurring findings of such analyses. "Scientists like me are starting to sound like a broken record," she stressed, according to the statement. With every additional attribution study on heatwaves, heavy rainfall or storms, it becomes clearer that the risks have shifted noticeably due to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions.

The organization World Weather Attribution regularly publishes so-called attribution studies after extreme weather events, in which it uses climate models to estimate the influence of man-made climate change on the respective event. For the current analysis, the researchers compared today's climate with that of the 1970s and found that the conditions at that time would not have allowed a heatwave like the current one in Europe.

Consequences for the affected countries

The heatwave is already having tangible consequences for the affected countries. Heat warnings have been issued in Great Britain and Ireland, elevated warning levels apply in the Netherlands and Denmark, and authorities in Austria are warning of significant strain on elderly people and the chronically ill. Healthcare systems are preparing for an increased number of heat-related emergencies.

The researchers point out that the results only assess the probability of such extreme events, not individual concrete days. Nevertheless, a clear trend is evident: with every additional tenth of a degree of warming, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves increases.

Call for faster action

Theodore Keeping, co-author of the study, stressed according to the statement that the message to policymakers and society is clear. In view of the clear data, the team is calling for faster measures to reduce greenhouse gases as well as more consistent adaptation strategies in dealing with extreme temperatures. The scientists see their study as further evidence that time for effective action is running out.

Overall, the researchers place the results in a series of similar findings from recent years. Heatwaves in Europe have measurably changed since the 2000s, and according to calculations, the coming summers are likely to bring even more frequent extremes if greenhouse gas emissions do not decrease significantly. The next heatwave, the researchers say, is only a matter of time.

A spokesperson for the Federal Environment Agency explained on request that the results of the attribution study were in line with the expectations of national climate researchers. In Germany, too, nighttime temperatures have been above average in recent weeks, complicating recovery in the affected regions.