Crypto investors in Germany remain unsettled: Study shows loss of confidence and concern over tax burden

According to the study, for which 1,000 crypto investors in Germany were surveyed according to BearingPoint's figures, many investors continue to see the digital asset world in a niche: "Kryptowährungen haben die Nische verlassen, sind in der Breite der Gesellschaft aber noch nicht angekommen," the analysis states. For business and politics, this is an important signal: "Damit digitale Vermögenswerte dauerhaft Akzeptanz finden, braucht es Vertrauen, Verständlichkeit und einen verlässlichen institutionellen Rahmen."

A key driver of the uncertainty is tax policy. According to information from coalition circles, the SPD had pushed early on for higher levies on gains from crypto transactions, but failed due to resistance from its partners. In the coalition agreement concluded in the spring, "hatten die drei Regierungsparteien gemeinsam im Koalitionsvertrag beschlossen, keine Steuern zu erhöhen," as the agreement shows. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil had repeatedly stressed in interviews that the federal government's austerity course took precedence and that new burdens on citizens were ruled out.

Tax debate as a central point of contention

Yet this very assurance is apparently doubted by many investors. In the BearingPoint survey, a clear majority of respondents expressed concern that the federal government could still introduce a steering levy or a higher capital gains tax on crypto returns during the current legislative period. The perceived uncertainty is so great that a significant share of investors plans to shift realized gains into stable assets or tangible assets in the short term in order to hedge against a retrospective levy. Private investors also say they are noticeably holding back on buying new coins.

The loss of confidence goes hand in hand with a broader political debate. Within the SPD, discussions continue behind the scenes over a "Crypto-Besteuerung 2.0," which is to capture large gains in particular more strongly. Environmental and consumer advocates are also pushing for tougher rules, for example on the taxation of staking returns and decentralized finance applications. Business associations, by contrast, see this as a competitive disadvantage and point to the great importance of blockchain technology for European competitiveness.

Market development and consumer sentiment

Looking at market developments, Bitcoin has given back a large share of its gains following last year's record high. Some market observers now speak of a "Korrekturphase zweiter Ordnung," because unlike in earlier periods of crisis, it is less speculative traders and rather institutional investors that are on the selling side. The second known founder of the software group Robert Bosch, who invests in blockchain projects through foundations, had also recently warned against overstepping regulatory boundaries.

The BearingPoint consultants interpret the results as a warning signal addressed to the federal government. Should the impression of a politically motivated special burden on the crypto scene persist, Germany risks losing touch with dynamic developments in the US, in Asia and most recently also in the United Kingdom. Clear rules of the game already apply there that combine investor protection with a willingness to innovate.

Demands on policymakers

The opinion research institute YouGov had also found in an earlier, separately conducted survey that citizens' confidence in cryptocurrencies has declined markedly. According to that, only a few respondents still see Bitcoin and the like as a sensible complement to traditional investment. The combination of falling prices, political uncertainty and a broadly perceived tax debate thus proves to be a toxic mix for sentiment.

Among investors themselves, the desire for education is growing in parallel. Many want understandable explanations of tax obligations, for example on the question of when gains from crypto transactions must be taxed and which allowances apply. BearingPoint recommends that policymakers provide clarity early on rather than conducting the discussion behind closed doors. This also includes a broad-based educational campaign that explains how digital assets work in generally understandable terms.

In the next sitting week of the Bundestag, the issue is unlikely to play a role, according to observers, since other budgetary questions take precedence. But in party headquarters, crypto taxation continues to be discussed as a possible building block for medium-term fiscal planning. It remains to be seen whether the SPD will stick to its course or still venture a push once the budget situation deteriorates further.