DAX likely to start the week with slight gains – Asian markets mixed

In June, the German leading index has so far lost 1.7 percent, while for the first half-year it is posting a gain of 0.7 percent. US indices were little changed on Friday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed nearly unchanged at 51,876 points, the broad S&P 500 stood at 7,354 points, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.2 percent to 25,297 points.

Alphabet replaces Verizon in the Dow Jones

With today's trading day, shares of Google parent company Alphabet begin trading in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Verizon. Unlike many indices, market capitalization is not the decisive criterion for inclusion in the Dow Jones; a selection committee evaluates a range of qualitative factors, including representation of the US market, sustainable growth, and strong investor interest.

Cues from Asia were mixed on Monday. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo slipped 0.7 percent to 68,869 points, remaining in correction mode. The broader Topix in Tokyo was nearly unchanged at 3,960 points. South Korea's Kospi is likewise holding in correction mode. In China, the CSI 300, which comprises stocks from Shanghai and Shenzhen, lost 0.2 percent to 4,856 points, and the Shanghai Composite also shed 0.2 percent to 4,017 points. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, by contrast, showed some recovery from its losing streak.

Geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment

In China, the Ministry of Commerce heightened tensions with Japan by placing 20 Japanese companies – including subsidiaries of Mitsubishi and Fujitsu – on an export control list and accusing Japan of "remilitarization." This measure additionally weighed on Asian markets and contributed to uncertainty.

Another uncertainty factor remains the Middle East war. The US and Iran intend to halt their mutual attacks in the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz for the time being and continue negotiations, according to US sources. According to information from informed circles in Washington, "Beide Seiten werden vorerst von weiteren Maßnahmen absehen." Ships could move freely while technical talks on implementing the framework agreement are to continue. The renewed escalation in the region, however, raises questions about the durability of the agreed ceasefire. "Der Nahost-Krieg bleibt ein Unsicherheitsfaktor."

The trade dispute over digital taxes is also weighing on sentiment. A digital levy would affect major US internet companies such as Google and Meta. US President Trump threatened European countries with new tariffs of 100 percent should they introduce digital taxes. This threat is heightening concerns about a further escalation in the transatlantic trade conflict.

Market experts see risk of consolidation

Market experts view the current situation with caution. Andreas Lipkow, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets, stated: "Jede negative Nachricht wird derzeit zum Anlass für Gewinnmitnahmen genutzt, und das ist ein Zeichen, dass der Aktienmarkt vor einer Konsolidierung stehen könnte." This assessment aligns with that of DZ Bank, which notes in its weekly outlook that the stock market "Momentan fehle es anscheinend an Kurssteigerungsfantasie".

Despite the numerous uncertainty factors, market observers expect a calm start to today's trading day. DZ Bank notes that "sind kurzfristig keine Impulse zu erwarten" will come from the overheated US stock markets. Investors will therefore pay particular attention to further developments in the Middle East, the trade dispute over digital taxes, and monetary policy signals from the US.