Dax starts cautiously – Relief rally after US-Iran deal loses momentum

The trigger for the previous day's rally was a framework agreement between the US and Iran, which according to observers aims to end the conflict in the Middle East. Gene Goldman, chief investment strategist at Cetera Investment Management, spoke of a classic relief rally. „Die Märkte erleben eine klassische Erleichterungsrally. Wir haben ein Abkommen zwischen den USA und dem Iran, das den Ölpreis stark drückt. Das lindert die Inflationsängste und lockt die Anleger wieder in risikoreichere Anlagen wie Technologie“, Goldman said.

Warnings against too much euphoria

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones had risen 0.9 percent to 51,671 points on Monday, reaching a record high. The Nasdaq climbed 3.1 percent to 26,684 points, the S&P 500 gained 1.7 percent to 7,556 points. Shares of Marvell Technology and Micron Technology in particular jumped by double digits, with Micron reaching a record high. The Nasdaq is thus once again approaching its recent peak. SpaceX shares also continued their rally with a rise toward 200 US dollars.

At the same time, observers warned against too much euphoria. „Die vorläufige Einigung ist daher weniger ein Schlussstrich als ein Zwischenstand: ein diplomatischer Erfolg auf Bewährung, dessen Bestand sich erst in den kommenden Wochen erweisen wird“, Schäffer stressed. Ulrich Stephan, chief investment strategist for private and corporate clients at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that the viability of the agreement depends on difficult follow-up talks, political approval in the US and the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon. „Solange offen bleibt, ob es um eine belastbare Einigung handelt oder nur um eine diplomatische Momentaufnahme, bleibt die Skepsis das bestimmende Gefühl an den Börsen“, said Salah-Eddine Bouhmidi, market observer at IG.

Oil price and interest rate expectations

After the agreement, the prospects for a recovery of those assets that have suffered particularly badly from the energy shock improved from Stephan's perspective. „Für Anleger verbessert dies die Aussichten auf eine Erholung jener Anlagen, die besonders stark unter dem Energieschock gelitten haben, vor allem bei konjunkturabhängigen Aktien in Europa und Teilen Asiens“, he said. The hope for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz had recently supported primarily cyclical stocks. Shipowners, however, pointed out that it could take weeks before confidence in shipping traffic through the strait returns.

The price of a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent stagnated at 83.22 US dollars. US light crude WTI rose slightly by 0.2 percent to 80.89 dollars. With falling oil prices, expectations of imminent interest rate hikes also receded. Helaba experts said with regard to the US Federal Reserve: „Die Notenbanker rund um den neuen Fed-Chef (Kevin) Warsh werden sich wohl in Zurückhaltung üben und damit den Markterwartungen entsprechen.“ The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is due on Wednesday, followed by the major expiry date on futures exchanges on Friday.

Weak Chinese car market

Economic signals from China also had a dampening effect. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), around 1.5 million vehicles were sold in May, a decline of 22 percent compared to the same month last year. From January to May, Chinese car sales thus fell by just under 20 percent compared to the same period last year. Volkswagen stated in Beijing that the Chinese car market is increasingly under pressure and that no recovery is to be expected over the course of the year.

Looking at individual stocks, Barclays Bank raised the Porsche share to "Equal weight", following earlier buy recommendations from UBS and Goldman Sachs. Barclays analyst Henning Cosman underlined the recently significantly increased valuation of the sports car manufacturer, but sees no more burdening factors. Deutsche Bank also issued a buy recommendation for GEA Group, which lifted the share of the mechanical engineering company by 1.2 percent pre-market; expert Lars vom-Cleff sees around a quarter of upside potential with a price target of 70 euros. GEA shares had reached a more than one-year low at the beginning of June.

Meanwhile, wafer manufacturer Siltronic used the recent price increase to its highest level since 2022 for a capital increase: by issuing three million new shares at 91 euros each, the company raises 273 million euros gross. On the Tradegate platform, the shares were traded five percent lower at 92.75 euros, after having reached the 100 euro mark just a few days earlier.