Gold price rises significantly after US-Iran framework agreement

Framework agreement with Pakistan as mediator

This was confirmed not only by the US government and Iran, but also by the mediator Pakistan. This points to a diplomatic breakthrough that is attracting attention beyond the financial markets.

Justin Lin, an analyst at the New York asset manager Global X Management, sees further potential. "Der Goldpreis könnte weiter steigen, wenn es zu einer endgültigen Beilegung des Konflikts und einer Wiedereröffnung der Straße von Hormuz kommt," he said. This would give central banks the leeway to set aside concerns about energy security and buy gold on a large scale again.

Strait of Hormuz in focus

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important shipping routes for oil worldwide. A reopening would relieve energy supply and further dampen inflation expectations, which could additionally support the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedge.

However, the current decline in oil prices as a result of the agreement between the US and Iran is likely to dampen inflation expectations and thus speculation about a possible interest rate hike by the Fed later in the year. The agreement was reached ahead of the interest rate decisions of several central banks, including the US Federal Reserve.

Fed meeting on the horizon

It is generally expected that the Fed will not change its key interest rate on Wednesday. Should the central bank nevertheless signal a more restrictive stance, this could put the gold price under pressure in the short term, as higher interest rates increase the opportunity costs of interest-free gold.

Market observers also point to gold's role as a safe haven in times of geopolitical tension. With the rapprochement between Washington and Tehran, risk aversion is declining, while demand from institutional investors remains robust.

Outlook for investors

The price surge on Monday reflects the expectation that the diplomatic solution will be more stable than previously assumed. Should the reopening of the strait fail or new tensions arise, traders expect rapid counter-movements.

For investors, gold remains a barometer of the geopolitical situation. The coming days, with the Fed meeting and possible further negotiation steps between the US and Iran, are likely to decisively determine the direction of the precious metal.