Demographer Sobotka sees major birth decline driven by crises and societal change

According to Sobotka, the available data reveals marked differences across Europe. While some Eastern and Southern European countries post especially low birth rates, Austria sits in the middle of the pack. Fertility rates in many countries have fallen well below the so-called two-child norm, which over the long term affects societal aging and the viability of social systems.

International comparisons point to divergent trends: in Asian metropolises such as Singapore, Hong Kong, and Macao, birth rates have dropped even more sharply, while China is attempting to counter the trend with a range of policy measures. In Switzerland and other Western European countries, by contrast, figures fluctuate more strongly depending on family policy orientation.

International differences and special cases

Sobotka stresses that the birth decline is not a purely economic phenomenon. Rather, understandings of partnership, work, and self-actualization are changing. Young adults are more often deciding against having children or postponing family formation significantly. At the same time, the number of women and men remaining childless is rising in many European societies.

The trend raises complex questions for research. Statistical models that focus solely on economic incentives fall short, in Sobotka's assessment. What matters is how politics, the labor market, and society can create framework conditions under which starting a family is experienced as a realistic option.

Policy options are limited

Among the measures under discussion are affordable housing, reliable childcare provision, a fairer distribution of care work between the sexes, and secure employment prospects. Sobotka sees these as starting points, even as he cautions against overestimating the effectiveness of any individual instrument.

At the same time, the researcher warns against short-term expectations. Demographic shifts play out over decades, and the consequences of low birth rates — such as a shrinking working-age population or rising care needs — only become visible with a lag. Policymakers and society face the task of developing long-term strategies.