Federal Government Tempers Expectations of Swift Bundestag Mandate for Hormuz Mission

Merz had made clear on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Évian, France, that he assumes the Bundestag will decide on the necessary mandate for a possible Bundeswehr deployment in the Strait of Hormuz immediately before the parliamentary summer recess in July. However, he had also conceded that such a deployment would be "preceded by a whole series of preconditions that have not yet been met."

Deployment of Ships: Minehunter and Supply Ship Relocated

The federal government has pledged to provide a minehunter and a supply ship for an international deployment in the Strait of Hormuz. The ships have already passed through the Suez Canal and are to hold themselves ready off Djibouti for a possible mission. Both ships have already been relocated to the eastern Mediterranean.

Pistorius justified his skepticism with two central hurdles. "Firstly, because it is unclear whether the negotiations in Switzerland will really lead to a stable ceasefire — that, however, is a precondition for the deployment." "Secondly, a Bundestag mandate also requires an international framework." A stable ceasefire between the USA and Iran is a precondition.

The ongoing talks are an attempt to end the conflict between Washington and Tehran. A sticking point in the negotiations between the USA and Iran on ending their conflict is the question of what happens regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Under the framework agreement between the USA and Iran, the goal is to reach a final agreement between Washington and Tehran within 60 days, which is also to include provisions on handling Tehran's controversial nuclear program.

Negotiations in Switzerland as the Decisive Hurdle

Whether the negotiations in Switzerland will lead to this, however, is unclear, the SPD politician emphasized. The background is that the Iranian side is criticizing the course of the ceasefire in Lebanon. Iran has declared that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as long as the ceasefire is not observed. At the same time, warnings are being issued from Tehran about the talks failing because of the ongoing fighting in Lebanon.

Pistorius described the geopolitical situation with a drastic image: Ultimately, Donald Trump has "pushed the cork into the Strait of Hormuz. We have an interest in pulling it back out, but with the consent of Iran and Oman." Trump had previously threatened to introduce a toll system for the strait; whether such a toll system should exist in the future is part of the ongoing negotiations. There have been indirect calls, including from US President Donald Trump, who urged European partners to provide support.

The federal government has tempered expectations that the Bundestag will decide on a mandate for the Bundeswehr's deployment in the Strait of Hormuz before the start of the summer recess in July. The government has pledged to provide a minehunter and a supply ship if the Iran war ends, in order to secure the important trade route.

Trump's Role and the Toll Drama

Pistorius also emphasized that participation in combat operations is not at issue. "To contribute there to ensuring ships can pass safely again, not to participate in combat operations, is in our interest." But we have an interest in pulling it back out. The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is in Europe's interest and in the interest of Germany's energy supply.

A possible on-the-ground Bundeswehr deployment is also under discussion — for example, for mine clearance. According to Kornelius, there is no concrete US request for the offered Bundeswehr deployment for mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for international energy supply. No concrete details have been set out on this.

Preconditions from the Federal Government's Perspective

Government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius underscored the federal government's uncompromising stance. "There are very clear preconditions to which we have tied the issuance of a mandate," he said. These include compliance with the ceasefire and the willingness of the warring parties to accept a presence on the ground. A mandate that is viable under international law and the consent of the Bundestag are also needed.

Kornelius now said that implementing the framework agreement is a process for which time is needed. The negotiations in Switzerland are an initial interim step. The timeframe for a possible Bundestag decision falls in a phase in which parliament goes into summer recess. "I would therefore be very cautious at the moment about forecasting dates." "I consider it urgently necessary that we refrain from speculating about dates."

There is agreement on the cautious line from the opposition. The chair of the Defense Committee, Thomas Röwekamp, CDU, said: "Yes, we have moved forward into the space in order to be able to act quickly, but the preconditions for an international mandate and German participation are, in my view, not yet met." Röwekamp is the chair of the Bundestag's Defense Committee and a member of the CDU.

International Law Expert Sees Constitutionally Precarious Situation

Doubts are also being voiced from within the governing coalition's ranks. "I cannot tell whether a stable situation and ceasefire will emerge to even allow a decision on a Bundeswehr mandate," said Siemtje Möller, the SPD's deputy parliamentary group leader. Siemtje Möller is the deputy chair of the SPD's Bundestag parliamentary group.

Additional legal concerns were raised by international law expert Claus Kreß of the University of Cologne. Claus Kreß is an international law expert at the University of Cologne. Kreß pointed out to the ARD capital studio that a UN Security Council resolution authorizing such a deployment is not currently foreseeable. "That is not on the horizon at this point in time. And there is also no older resolution containing such authorization. And that leads to a constitutionally precarious situation," Kreß told the ARD capital studio. An international framework is, however, provided by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, Pistorius had objected.

Blockade of the Strait Since the End of February

The Strait of Hormuz is a maritime passage between Iran and Oman through which a significant portion of global oil and gas supplies flows. It is described as a maritime passage so important for world trade that its full reopening is currently uncertain: "Will this maritime passage, so important for world trade, be fully reopened?" The strait has been largely blocked since the end of February, after the USA and Israel had carried out attacks on Iran.

Parallel to the negotiations on the Hormuz mission, a fragile ceasefire is in effect in the Middle East: A ceasefire between the Iranian-allied Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and Israel has been in place since Friday afternoon. Iran is demanding implementation of this ceasefire; as long as it is not observed, the strait remains closed according to the Iranian reading.

Open Ending: No Mandate in Sight

A mandate for the deployment must be granted by the Bundestag. Whether this mandate will come before the summer recess is currently open. The ships are currently stationed off Djibouti and in the eastern Mediterranean — ready, but without a mission. The federal government has pledged to provide a minehunter and a supply ship for an international deployment in the Strait of Hormuz. Military readiness has thus been documented, but the political decision on a deployment is still pending.