Flávio Bolsonaro to run as Liberal Party presidential candidate against Lula

The candidate also used the stage for symbolic politics: with an oversized pair of scissors he illustrated the announced spending cuts should he win the election in October. Flávio Bolsonaro has not yet named a vice presidential candidate; according to those close to the senator, the search is still ongoing.

International support

The designated candidate received prominent support from Argentine President Javier Milei, who traveled to São Paulo specifically for the convention. Milei jumped and sang on stage and described Flávio Bolsonaro in his speech as the one who could dispel the danger posed by Lula to Brazil. Milei said verbatim: "Ich glaube fest daran, dass niemand in der Lage ist wie er, mit dem Risiko Lula, das über Brasilien schwebt, fertig zu werden." In his speech, Milei criticized sitting President Lula and called for putting an end to the "socialist scum" in Brazil and Latin America.

Also connected by video was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who sent a short video message to the convention and expressed his support for Flávio Bolsonaro. The candidate's stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, did not appear in person at the congress but also sent a video message in which she mentioned Flávio Bolsonaro only once.

Father's shadow

To demonstrate presence, an AI-generated video of Jair Bolsonaro was played at the convention, meant to simulate his appearance. The former president himself has been barred from making public appearances since his conviction for attempted coup and, according to Brazilian authorities, has been placed under house arrest; political campaign appearances – including through third parties – are prohibited until the end of the presidential election in October.

Jair Bolsonaro had been convicted in September of the previous year by Brazil's Supreme Court for leading a "criminal organization" aimed at reversing his 2022 election loss to Lula. The sentence amounted to just under 27 years in prison; the sentence, which began being served in November of the previous year, is being carried out under strict conditions. The now 71-year-old had never explicitly acknowledged his defeat to Lula and repeatedly spoke of election fraud. The same claims about Brazil's electronic voting machines had already led in 2023 to a ban preventing him from running for office again until 2030.

Background: Storming of the government district

The conviction is connected to the events of early January 2023, when thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed the government district in Brasília, attacking and vandalizing Parliament, the Supreme Court, and the presidential palace. The storming of Brazil's institutions has been compared in reports to the attack by supporters of then-US President Donald Trump on the US Capitol two years earlier.

Rival candidate Lula

Meanwhile, the left is preparing its candidacy: the 80-year-old Lula, who already governed Brazil between 2003 and 2011 and has been president again since 2023, plans to officially confirm himself as the candidate at a convention of his Workers' Party (PT) in São Paulo in early August. According to a Datafolha poll released on Saturday, Lula currently leads in voter preference.

The mood in the incumbent's camp, however, is being dampened by a foreign policy problem: since Friday, the US government under President Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs of up to 37.5 percent on Brazilian exports. According to polls, many voters, businesspeople, and politicians blame Flávio Bolsonaro for these tariffs, even though the measure originates in Washington.

Burdens for the challenger

Flávio Bolsonaro himself had already admitted after his nomination in May that he had asked the imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro for several million dollars for a film about his father's life. In addition, he repeated last week long-disproven claims about the reliability of Brazil's electronic voting system – a pattern his father had also repeatedly put forward.

International support for Flávio Bolsonaro was not limited to South America. After his nomination, the senator said he had visited the White House and the US State Department to seek public support from US President Donald Trump. This trip took place in the context of the recently imposed tariffs; a direct connection has not been officially confirmed so far.

Outlook on the campaign

In addition to the two main contenders Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, candidates from smaller parties have also announced their participation in the presidential election. If no candidate achieves an absolute majority on October 4, a runoff is scheduled for October 25. The election is considered one of the most polarized in Brazil's recent history, marked by the deep divide between supporters of the right-wing Bolsonaro movement and the left-wing Workers' Party.

Observers see Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy as an attempt to secure the political legacy of his father despite his imprisonment and public ostracism. While the right wing is banking on continuity, the left is campaigning for Lula on the grounds of stability and social security amid an international environment perceived as uncertain. The outcome of the election is also likely to determine how Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, will relate to the new US tariffs, regional cooperation, and the country's role in international forums going forward.

Deutsche Welle and other outlets had previously reported that the nomination convention of the Partido Liberal in São Paulo was staged as a powerful demonstration of the right-wing opposition – with an international stage, symbolic imagery, and a clear programmatic commitment to continuing the Bolsonaro project. The coming weeks until election day on October 4 will show whether this show of unity can be converted into votes, or whether the burden of the US tariffs and the allegations against Flávio Bolsonaro himself will turn the tide in Lula's favor.