Fraport Lowers Passenger Forecast for 2026 at Frankfurt Airport

Fraport CEO Stefan Schulte cited as reasons for the decline the strikes at Lufthansa in spring as well as the "damit verbundenen Befürchtungen einer Kerosin-Mangellage" in connection with the conflict with Iran. "Massive Ölpreissteigerungen" had also led to a noticeable reluctance to book, Schulte said. At the same time, airlines had in some cases significantly reduced their offering in Frankfurt, "mit der Lufthansa an der Spitze".

Reasons: Strikes, Iran War and Kerosene Concerns

The development varied considerably across the individual regions. More people flew from Frankfurt toward "Fernost, Afrika und Lateinamerika", according to the release. These increases were unable to offset the decline in flights to the Middle East. Traffic with states in the Middle East collapsed in June by more than a quarter.

Already in May, Fraport had announced that, due to the Lufthansa strikes, only the lower end of the previous forecast range appeared achievable. The expectation has now been revised further downward. "Nach einem leichten Minus im ersten Halbjahr erwarten wir für das Gesamtjahr aktuell nur noch ein Passagieraufkommen in etwa auf dem Niveau des Vorjahres", Schulte explained.

Despite the weaker passenger development, management is sticking to its original financial targets. "Die zum Jahresanfang gesteckten finanziellen Ziele sehen wir weiter als erreichbar an und halten an unserem Finanzausblick für 2026 fest", Schulte said. However, "der leicht schwächere Verkehr in Deutschland" would have a dampening effect on earnings development for the full year.

International Locations and Cargo as a Bright Spot

Cargo volume at Frankfurt Airport, by contrast, increased. Cargo volume rose by 2.0 percent in June to 177,676 metric tons. Within the group, the development was more favorable internationally. "An den internationalen Konzernflughäfen sei jedoch mit einer überwiegend positiven Entwicklung zu rechnen", Schulte said.

The Brazilian airports of Fortaleza and Porto Alegre each recorded a passenger increase of 2.0 percent in June. Ljubljana Airport in Slovenia even increased its volume by 12.7 percent. Overall, passenger volume at the actively managed Fraport airports rose by 1.0 percent in the first half of the year to 77.7 million, while in June alone it fell by 1.1 percent to 19.7 million.

Analyst Assessments and Market Reaction

Frankfurt thus accounts for around one third of the Fraport Group's passenger volume. In addition to the Frankfurt hub, the group also includes locations in Greece, among them Thessaloniki and other regional airports, as well as the aforementioned airports in Brazil and Slovenia. Fraport is a stock corporation listed in the MDax.

The news about the lowered forecast was published by Fraport on Monday. Analyst houses had most recently rated the stock unevenly: Barclays Capital rated the shares "Overweight" on June 12, 2026, Jefferies & Company rated them "Buy". Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Bernstein Research rated Fraport as "Neutral" or "Market-Perform". The original forecast of 65 to 66 million passengers for 2026 had already been described as cautiously optimistic in light of the previous year's figure of 63.2 million.