HDE Survey: Mood in German Retail Continues to Deteriorate

Main Problems from the Retailers' Perspective

Specific concerns of the industry according to the survey are above all customers' reluctance to buy (79 percent), bureaucratic burdens (55 percent) as well as price developments and the minimum wage (48 percent each). These factors weigh on the assessment of one's own situation: 42 percent of retailers rate their current business situation as poor.

For the current year, the HDE is sticking to its forecast of total revenue of 697.4 billion euros. real - that is, adjusted for price increases - only 0.5 percent. The forecast thus roughly corresponds to the level of the previous year. "Der Verband erwartet für den Einzelhandel in Deutschland im laufenden Jahr einen Gesamtumsatz von 697,4 Milliarden Euro," the association had already announced previously.

Outlook for 2026 Remains Restrained

The prospects for brick-and-mortar retail are particularly subdued. "im stationären Handel liegen die Erlöse voraussichtlich nur auf dem Vorjahresniveau," according to the HDE. Only 18 percent of the companies surveyed expect higher revenues in 2026 than in the previous year; around two-thirds expect significantly or slightly declining revenues.

The weak consumer climate, high regulatory burdens, and persistent cost pressure are increasingly putting the industry under pressure. While about a third of retailers expect stabilization, the majority assumes a further downward slide in revenues. The economic recovery in one of Europe's largest domestic markets therefore remains elusive for the time being.

Survey Data Basis

The HDE collected the data as part of its regular economic survey. 600 companies from the retail sector in Germany were surveyed. The results are considered an important sentiment indicator for private consumer demand and thus for the economy as a whole.

Observers interpret the results as a warning signal for the federal government. Given the breadth of the problems mentioned—from bureaucracy to wages to energy prices—pressure is mounting to bring relief for the industry. Whether this succeeds is likely to become apparent in the HDE's upcoming economic reports.