Houthis control Bab al-Mandab and put Red Sea shipping under pressure

Island of Perim as a Key Position

The impact on trade routes is significant. Numerous shipping companies are already rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, which lengthens delivery times and increases freight costs. Insurers have raised premiums sharply for voyages through the Red Sea because the risk of attacks on ships is assessed as high.

On the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula, in the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, the Kpler data also show that shipping remains under pressure: on a 7-day average, only 19 ships per day have recently transited the strait.

Support from Iran

The Houthis see themselves as part of the Axis of Resistance led by Iran. According to Western intelligence assessments, Tehran supports the rebels with weapons, training, and logistical assistance. This connection enables the Houthis to continue their operations at sea using missiles, drones, and fast boats.

The United States and its allies have maintained international naval missions in the region in response. Several Western states are conducting patrols to protect merchant ships and repel attacks. According to its own statements, the coalition has intercepted numerous Houthi drones and cruise missiles.

Impact on Trade and Energy Prices

Despite these measures, ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden have been attacked or fired on repeatedly in recent months. Both cargo ships and tankers have been affected. Crews have reported explosions in close proximity, with occasional fires on board.

The situation at the strait is also affecting energy prices. Since a portion of oil and LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf are normally transported through the Red Sea to Europe and Asia, disruptions have a direct impact on world market prices. Analysts see this as an additional inflationary factor.

Diplomatic efforts to defuse the situation are proceeding on several tracks. The United Nations has repeatedly called for a ceasefire and free navigation. At the same time, individual states are negotiating directly with the Houthis over the release of detained ships and crews.

Diplomatic Efforts and Outlook

International observers view the Houthis' control of Bab al-Mandab as an indication that non-state actors, with state support, are capable of severely disrupting global trade routes. The development is seen in security circles as a warning signal regarding the vulnerability of maritime infrastructure.

If the situation persists or worsens, logistics planners expect further rerouting of ships around Africa. This would place additional strain on already tight supply chains and push transport costs higher worldwide.

The coming weeks are considered decisive for whether shipping through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz can be made more reliable again. The question of the extent to which Iran is willing to exert its influence on the Houthis to curb attacks on merchant ships will also play a role.